Forecasting Schizophrenia Incidence Frequencies Using Time Series Approach

Abstract

IntroductionSchizophrenia is a disabling number of brain disorders characterized by symptoms such as hallucinations, delusions, disorganized interaction, poor planning, reduced incentive, and blunted influence.1 Schizophrenia is associated with deficits in various cognitive processes that result in disorders of complex thinking and ideation, resulting in difficulty in dealing with 'psychological and social challenges in daily life.2 Schizophrenia is a devastating psychiatric disorder that affects approximately 1% of the population.3 For several years, it was believed that the prevalence of schizophrenia varied little between sites. 4,5 It is, in fact, the case that the estimates of the prevalence of schizophrenia are seen as a multiplicity of variations. 1,[6][7][8] Major advancements have been made in our understanding of the epidemiology of schizophrenia. We now understand that the illness is somewhat more common and severe in young men, and that the occurrence may differ geographically and temporally. Risk factors have been elucidated; biological risks include a family history and ancestors of the complaint, advanced paternal age, obstetric difficulties, and abuse of drugs such as stimulants and cannabis. Furthermore, new research has also recognized social risk factors such as being born and brought up in a city, migration, and certain types of childhood difficulty such as physical misuse and bullying, as well as social separation and opposing events in adult lifetime. To conclude, the epidemiological evidence suggests that schizophrenia is a multifactorial disorder in which genes connect to the other person and with environmental factors to push individuals more than a threshold into expression of the disorder. 9 Studies that estimate the occurrence of schizophrenia are required to be able to recognize gradients across time and/or place. Forecasting Schizophrenia Incidence Frequencies Using Time Series Approach Conclusion:Our study showed that a significant increase happens in the frequency of schizophrenia from 2016. Although the development is not constant and the same for all months, the amount of increase is considerably high compared to before 2016.

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