Forecasting the demand for aircraft industry products today

Клочков, В В

doi:10.1134/s1075700706010047

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…For the Russian aircraft industry to make a largescale breakthrough to the world market of civil aircraft it is necessary to secure the qualitative superiority of 6 Needless to say, it requires also raising the living standards of low-income population groups, infrastructure development, i.e. solving the problems far beyond the scope of aviation industry.…”

Section: Economic Justification Of Requirements To the Advanced Produmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These figures show that the industry's growth potential is immense, but is attainable only by drastically increasing the affordability of air transportation services. 6 It could be achieved through developing transportation systems applying amphibian aircraft, winged surface effect vehicles, airships etc. Such integrated multimode systems, as is expected, will be able to provide timely and cost effective door-to-door delivery of passengers and cargoes, including remote regions with underdeveloped infrastructure.…”

Section: Economic Justification Of Requirements To the Advanced Produmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The publication [6] considers some methodological problems of forecasting the demand for the production of aircraft industry. It is shown there, in particular, that under unstable economic conditions the reliable forecast of demand for air industry production in the competitive market is possible only through selecting groups of rationally operating potential customers.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Forecasting the demand for advanced Russian-made civil aircraft

Клочков¹,

Gusmanov²

2007

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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Section: Economic Justification Of Requirements To the Advanced Produmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Justification Of Requirements To the Advanced Produmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Forecasting the demand for advanced Russian-made civil aircraft

Клочков¹,

Gusmanov²

2007

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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“…The findings give a clear idea of the amount of investments and possible economic gains and losses and allow us to evaluate in a first approximation the situation with a 15-year lead, which is likely to witness the increased financing of CMTA production, compared to the previous 15 years, against accelerated reductions in the MTA fleets of all countries. In our opinion, the derived ratios make it possible to complement the traditional methods of the trend and scenario forecasting of demand for aircraft [15], simplify the process itself, increase its resistance to market instability, improve estimation accuracy, demonstrate the results more clearly. In aircraft design, the derived ratios make it possible to assess the economic quality of a project.…”

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confidence: 95%

Long-term forecasting of investments in civil and military transport aviation

Galchenko¹,

Тегин²

2007

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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A review and forecast of civil and military-transport aircraft costs. Within the study of the market of investments in high-tech industries, the authors have analyzed the market of civil and military-transport aircraft (CMTA), 1 using open databases on aircraft costs for the past 45 years to estimate the amounts of funds allocated for aircraft purchasing. The retrospective analysis of purchases will make it possible to estimate in a first approximation a long-term (10-15 years) outlook for the investment market.The finding show trends in the development of modern and future military aviation (see [1]), which may be extended to CMTA as well. The main conclusion is that aircraft cost is continually and evenly "chronologically" growing (10% a year) irrespective of how advanced and efficient the proposed aircraft design is. At the same time, the costs of planes that are competitive in the world market and that were manufactured in the same year are proportional to their masses and practically do not depend on their specifications and performance. Note that the cost of land and water vehicles is also growing similarly to that of military equipment but approximately two times slower.Relative to CMTA-producing and technologically advanced countries (the first group: the NATO countries and Sweden), we have obtained an empirical dependence of the catalog cost 2 of a commercially produced passenger (transport) plane on its mass and release date:where S tm is the catalog cost (million dollars at the current exchange rate) of a fully equipped empty commercially produced CMTA plane in its basic design (frame, engines, and equipment), m is the aircraft mass (t), and 1 CMTA here refers only to subsonic planes for line-haul and regional passenger and freight flights of more than 3 t. 2 The term "catalog cost" corresponds to the real cost of an existing line item on its release date, disclosed in the most reliable sources: specialized editions, catalogs, reference books, etc. [2-6].τ is the history or prehistory period from 1989. (Respectively, in 1988(Respectively, in -1990, the costs of CMTA planes produced in these countries were numerically almost equal to their masses: S tm ≈ m .)The practical applicability of formula (1) for calculating the catalog cost was confirmed by the analysis of the catalog costs of CMTA planes published in the last decades of the 20th century-the beginning of the 21st century (Fig. 1).Thus, the cost of any plane in the world aircraft market is predetermined by its mass and release year , while the impact of any other parameters is less one to two orders of magnitude. As a rule, the creation of a new and more advanced model leads not to a higher cost in the market compared to the previous model but only to an increase in its compatibility. The obtained formula (1) is similar to that presented in [1] for calculating the cost of military planes but differs from it by a simpler linear dependence on mass. (A more complicated dependence for military aircraft is possibly explained by the cost of arms and ...

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“…But this approach based on historical data of the dynamics of prices and KLOCHKOV, NIKITOVA volumes of sales is not quite applicable to markets liable to qualitative transformations, the more so to new markets. In these cases another approach [5] is more justified, i.e., direct modeling of the behavior of potential customers and sellers. The rationally acting customer will choose that product which has for him the highest economic efficiency and will buy it in the most adequate quantities.…”

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confidence: 99%