Forecasting the market penetration of new technologies using a combination of economic cost and diffusion models

Assessing economic impacts of clean diesel engines. Phase 1 report: U.S.- or foreign-produced clean diesel engines for selected light trucks

“…Marketing professionals use mathematical models for projecting the level of technology substitution. Work by many researchers has shown such substitution to follow an S-shaped curve under normal circumstances (Mansfield 1961;Blackman 1974;Paul 1979;Teotia and Raju 1986). A formulation in which functions F o {t} and F n {t} define the market shares of old and new technologies at time t, respectively, was used in this analysis.…”

Macroeconomic impacts of clean diesel engines -- phase 2 report : U.S.-produced clean diesel engines and SIDI gasoline engines for selected light trucks.

“…Marketing professionals use mathematical models for projecting the level of technology substitution. Work by many researchers has shown such substitution to follow an S-shaped curve under normal circumstances (Mansfield 1961;Blackman 1974;Paul 1979;Teotia and Raju 1986). A formulation in which functions F o {t} and F n {t} define the market shares of old and new technologies at time t, respectively, was used for projecting SIDI shares.…”

Forecasting micro electro mechanical systems: a disruptive innovation

“…First market sales can be based either on the use of comparison with similar products or on pre-launch studies and forecasts [20] [29] [49] [18] [30]. The total market size can be estimated based on the consideration of substitutes, economic factors and the study of existing or potential markets [51] [53] [7] [52] [16] [47] [50]. It should be assumed that the shape of the diffusion curve should be standard normal, unless a good reason can be given to assume otherwise…”