Frost Conditions Due to Climate Change in South-Eastern Europe via a High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Dataset

Abstract

Frost incidents comprise significant extreme weather events owing to climate change, possibly endangering the agricultural sector of the already impacted south-eastern European area. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation of the frost conditions under the climate regime for eleven countries was conducted by calculating relevant frost agroclimatic indicators under three time horizons (1985 to 2015, 2005 to 2035 and 2015 to 2045). The Frost Days (FD), Free of Frost Days (FFD), Last Spring Frost (LSF) and First Autumn Frost (FAF) were estimated daily over a grid of 25 × 25 km. We demonstrated that the FD will be reduced according to the balanced A1B emissions scenario over the entire examined area with the mountainous and continental regions being most affected. From 2005 to 2035, a higher LSF reduction is expected over Greece and Albania and the earlier FAF in high altitude areas. All examined regions are projected to face delayed FAF, from 2015 to 2045. In general, all countries will face an increase in the growing season duration owing to the increase of the FFD.

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

“…Initially, 26 predictors of reanalysis datasets (NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 and ECMWF ERA5) were used during the screening process. Then, a combination of correlation matrix, p -value, partial correlation, and percentage of reduction in partial correlation (PRP) was used to screen the predictors 46 . The steps are explained below.…”

“…Frost days (FD) is a crucial index for understanding the potential risks and planning necessary measures to protect crops from cold temperatures. Frost days can damage crops, which results in a reduction in agricultural production 46 . Daily temperature range (DTR) provides insights into temperature fluctuations and variations that crops may experience during their growth cycle 47 .…”

The Bioclimatic Change of the Agricultural and Natural Areas of the Adriatic Coastal Countries

“…In conjunction with the documented temperature increases and precipitation reductions, the climate projections for the ADT emphasise the territory's vulnerability to CC, with direct influences on its abundant natural ecosystems and agricultural areas [10][11][12][13]. The changing climate's both present and projected future impacts on natural areas may include, among others, increased water stress [14], increased aridity and high vulnerability to soil degradation [15], the growth rate depletion of forest trees [16], the high susceptibility to tree vitality loss [17] and increased tree mortality [18], the elevated risk of fire initiation [19], the reduction of biodiversity [20], and the increased frequency of alien plant invasions in natural habitats [21].…”

“…The environmental conditions also represent indispensable factors for agriculture, given the mounting evidence that CC has already strongly modified agricultural crop production systems [1,22,23]. The up to the present and future impacts involve greater influences on crop evapotranspiration [24], the increased risk of heat-caused plant injuries [25], the decline of crop quality production and the reduction of crop yields [3,26,27], higher yield variability, the reduction of suitable areas for the cultivation of traditional crops [28,29], and the further (northward) expansion of cultivations to areas which were previously constrained by the prevailing unsuitable environmental conditions (e.g., increased temperature and frequent droughts) [3,12,25,27,30]. Even though individually, temperature and precipitation are valuable atmospheric elements in investigating CC, the overall apprehension and magnitude of CC in bioclimatic terms is expressed more comprehensively by the bioclimatic indices/indicators [31].…”

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Growing Degree Days (GDD) Agroclimatic Index for the Viticulture over the Northern Mediterranean Basin

“…Although the vine is one of the most resilient crops to climate change (CC) [21], the latter is expected to form more xerothermic conditions over specific areas of the Northern Mediterranean Basin (henceforth NMB), such as the southeastern and central Europe, the Adriatic coastal countries and the Balkans [22][23][24][25] (. Temperature records with emphasis on viticultural areas reveal that from 1950 to 2000, the mean growing season temperature has already increased by approximately 1.6-1.8 °C in Europe and 1.2-1.4 °C globally [26,27].…”