The Bioclimatic Change of the Agricultural and Natural Areas of the Adriatic Coastal Countries

Abstract

In this study, the present bioclimatic conditions and the estimated changes of the bioclimate over natural and agricultural areas of the Adriatic territory (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Italy, Montenegro, and Slovenia) are analysed and presented. For this purpose, a survey on De Martonne’s bioclimate categories’ spatial distribution over the entire examined area and individual countries is conducted for the reference period (1981–2010) and for three more future time periods (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (ssp370/RCP7 and ssp585/RCP8.5). The very high spatial resolution (~300 m) results demonstrate that the potential future alterations of the Adriatic territory’s bioclimate indicate the probable acceleration of the trend towards warmer and dryer conditions by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, with the Italian region’s agricultural areas mainly being influenced. Moreover, as the studied scenarios project, the bioclimatic impact will affect natural and agricultural areas. For the agricultural areas, the semi-dry class (the most xerothermic in the study area) will expand from 4.9% (reference period) to 17.7% according to the RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2071–2100. When over the natural areas, the related variation of the same class is from 0.9% to 5.6%. In general, the western part of the Adriatic coastline is more vulnerable to climate results than the eastern one.

A Pathway towards Climate Services for the Agricultural Sector

“…CSs play a vital role in helping agriculture adapt to the challenges posed by [109]. Agricultural stakeholders face increased risks and uncertainties as the climate becomes more variable and extreme weather events become more frequent and intense [110][111][112][113][114][115][116].…”

Mapping 30-m Resolution Bioclimatic Variables During 1991–2020 Climate Normals for Hubei Province, the Yangtze River Middle Reaches

“…Bioclimatic data has been widely applied in species distribution models (SDMs) [4] for invasive species management [5], [6], [7] and assessment of biodiversity [8], [9]. Additionally, it provides insights into the impacts of climate on agriculture [10], [11] and forestry [12], [13]. Modern soil digital mapping (DSM) tasks also have started incorporating bioclimatic data [14], [15], [16], [17] that is more informative than only traditional climate variables in revealing of soil formation.…”

An agro-meteorological hazard analysis for risk management in a Mediterranean area: a case study in Southern Italy (Campania Region)

“…Weather-related hazard analyses focused on agriculture are quite spread in scientific literature (WMO and GWP 2016;Shah et al 2021;Bacci 2017;Antle et al 2015;Sivakumar et al 2005;Groot et al 2018), particularly on drought and floods and/or on specific crops, also in Italy (Moonen et al 2002). However, other extremes need to be deeply investigated in relation to their potential impacts, such as extreme cold and hot temperatures, as well as heat waves, during sensitive crop stages (Monteleone et al 2023), also considering future scenarios of potential alterations of bioclimate and trend acceleration towards warmer and dryer conditions, as for example reported for some Mediterranean agricultural areas (coastal countries of the Adriatic Sea) (Charalampopoulos et al 2023).…”