Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs

Abstract

Future changes of terrestrial ecosystems due to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, especially for vegetation in the Tropics. Here, we evaluate the natural vegetation response to projected future changes using an improved version of a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-CN-DV) driven with climate change projections from 19 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical climate (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) has been compared with that under the projected future climate (2081-2100) scenario for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) to qualitatively assess how natural potential vegetation might change in the future. With one outlier excluded, the ensemble average of vegetation changes corresponding to climates of 18 GCMs shows a poleward shift of forests in northern Eurasia and North America, which is consistent with findings from previous studies. It also shows a general "upgrade" of vegetation type in the Tropics and most of the temperate zones, in the form of deciduous trees and shrubs taking over C3 grass in Europe and broadleaf deciduous trees taking over C4 grasses in Central Africa and the Amazon. LAI and NPP are projected to increase in the high latitudes, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, and Central Africa. This results from CO 2 fertilization, enhanced water use efficiency, and in the extra-tropics warming. However, both LAI and NPP are projected to decrease in the Amazon due to drought. The competing impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization lead to large uncertainties in the projection of future vegetation changes in the Tropics.Climatic Change

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

“…Although a number of DGVMs are available to understand vegetation dynamics, we selected the IBIS as it has been widely tested and validated in different geographies (Yuan et al 2011;Yu et al 2014;Chaturvedi et al 2011). IBIS model uses physiological formulations with much greater detail than other DGVMs (Cramer et al 2001).…”

Testing the maximum entropy production approach for estimating evapotranspiration from closed canopy shrubland in a low‐energy humid environment

“…Northern high‐latitude ecosystems are experiencing amplified climate warming (IPCC, ; Serreze & Barry, ) that has led to changes in the composition, density, and distribution of vegetation communities in recent decades (Elmendorf et al, ); for example, a northward advance of the treeline replacing tundra shrubs (Serreze & Barry, ; Yu, Wang, Parr, & Ahmed, ). Future drying and warming in growing seasons (Lindner et al, ) may lead to a reduction in subsurface water storage and streamflow due to increasing evapotranspiration ( ET ).…”

Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

“…This change could influence the water balance in either direction by increasing evapotranspiration due to interception losses or by decreasing evapotranspiration through limiting plant water uptake. Second, rising atmospheric CO 2 may favor C 3 species over C 4 species, which could lead to more woody plants compared to some grass species (Yu et al, 2014). This could influence the water balance by increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing runoff.…”