Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan

Azmat, Muhammad; Qamar, Muhammad Uzair; Huggel, Christian; Hussain, Ejaz

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.206

Cited by 66 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Bogacki and Ismail () reported that snowmelt contributed 45–60% of total discharge depending on year. Azmat et al () estimated the contribution of snowmelt to be 57% using HEC‐HMS and 63% using SRM. Based on our interpretation of previous studies, we are confident that ice‐melt is not a strong contributor to streamflow, but we have very low confidence about the split between snowmelt and rainfall.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, several recently developed conceptual cryo‐hydrological models have the potential to be used in the region, including GR4JSG (Nepal et al, ), and GR4J‐Cemaneige (Valéry et al, ). Increasingly, studies are comparing the model performance in glaciated catchments of multiple models to understand the robustness of predictions (e.g., Azmat et al, ; Nepal et al, ; Vetter et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

Dolk

Penton

Ahmad

2020

Hydrological Processes

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There is a growing appreciation of the uncertainties in the estimation of snow-melt and glacier-melt as a result of climate change in high elevation catchments. Through a detailed examination of three hydrological models in two catchments, and interpretation of results from previous studies, we observed that many variations in estimated streamflow could be explained by the selection of a best parameter set from the possible good model parameters. The importance of understanding changing glacial dynamics is critically important for our study areas in the Upper Indus Basin where Pakistan's policymakers are planning infrastructure to meet the future energy and water needs of hundreds of millions of people downstream. Yet, the effect of climate on glacial runoff and climate on snowmelt runoff is poorly understood. With the HBV model, for example, we estimated glacial melt as between 56% and 89% for the Hunza catchment. When rainfall was a scaled parameter, the models estimated glacial melt as between 20% and 100% of streamflow. These parameter sets produced wildly different projections of future climate for RCP8.5 scenarios in 2046-2075 compared to 1976-2005. Assuming no glacial shrinkage, for one climate projection, we found that the choice among good parameter sets resulted in projected values of future streamflow across a range from +54% to +125%. Parameter selection was the most significant source of uncertainty in the glaciated catchment and amplified climate model uncertainty, whereas climate model choice was more important in the rainfall dominated catchment. Although the study focuses on Pakistan, the overall conclusions are instructive for other similar regions in the world.We suggest that modellers of glaciated catchments should present results from at least the book-ends: models with low sensitivity to ice-melt and models with high sensitivity to ice-melt. This would reduce confusion among decision makers when they are faced with similar contrasting results.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

Dolk

Penton

Ahmad

2020

Hydrological Processes

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“…The model hydrological structure includes six modelling components: Meteorological input, snow, precipitation loss, direct runoff, baseflow, and river routing. The applied structure of the hydrological model is capable of performing continuous hydrological simulation under present and future climates [30,31]. Average climate outputs are used by the hydrological model to obtain the inflows for the Lim water system reservoirs ( Figure 1a).…”

Section: General Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions

Stojković

Simonović́

2019

Water

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Investigating the impact of climate change on the management of a complex multipurpose water system is a critical issue. The presented study focuses on different steps of the climate change impact analysis process: (i) Use of three regional climate models (RCMs), (ii) use of four bias correction methods (BCMs), (iii) use of three concentration scenarios (CSs), (iv) use of two model averaging procedures, (v) use of the hydrological model and (vi) use of the system dynamics simulation model (SDSM). The analyses are performed for a future period, from 2006 to 2055 and the reference period, from 1971 to 2000. As a case study area, the Lim water system in Serbia (southeast Europe) is used. The Lim river system consists of four hydraulically connected reservoirs (Uvac, Kokin Brod, Radojnja, Potpec) with a primary purpose of hydropower generation. The results of the climate change impact analyses indicate change in the future hydropower generation at the annual level from −3.5% to +17.9%. The change has a seasonal variation with an increase for the winter season up to +20.3% and decrease for the summer season up to −33.6%. Furthermore, the study analyzes the uncertainty in the SDSM outputs introduced by different steps of the modelling process. The most dominant source of uncertainty in power production is the choice of BCMs (54%), followed by the selection of RCMs (41%). The least significant source of uncertainty is the choice of CSs (6%). The uncertainty in the inflows and outflows is equally dominated by the choice of BCM (49%) and RCM (45%).

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“…The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used to generate runoff under various climate, hydrologic, and water resource scenarios. The HEC-HMS model, which was developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, has been applied to assess runoff, simulate hydrologic events, and forecast short-term flooding in different basins [33][34][35]. The SWAT model is used to explore the influences of climate change on hydrology processes, simulate long-term runoff changes, and return a favorable performance in the future [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin

Yang

2020

Sensors

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Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.

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Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan

Cited by 66 publications

References 29 publications

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

Amplification of hydrological model uncertainties in projected climate simulations of the Upper Indus Basin: Does it matter where the water is coming from?

System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin

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