Future climate change will severely reduce habitat suitability of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander

Zhang, Zhixin; Mammola, Stefano; Liang, Zhiqiang; Capinha, César; Wei, Qiwei; Wu, Yuanan; Zhou, Junlan; Wang, Chongrui

doi:10.1111/fwb.13483

Cited by 53 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 67 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Addressing the validity of the fitness-centre hypothesis has important implications for conservation and applied biodiversity management. Indeed, several conservation studies are based upon estimations of coarse modeled habitat suitability based on occurrence records to predict areas where species will most likely harbors individuals of that species (Peterson et al 2002, Fitzpatrick et al 2008, Zhang et al 2020). However, a lack of the underlying fitness-centre relationship alters our interpretation of how modeled probability of occurrence is linked to the ability of specimens to survive and grow in a given location, affecting decisions on where to prioritize conservation efforts.…”

Section: General Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse‐scale probability of occurrence in North American trees

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Habitat suitability estimated with probability of occurrence in species distribution models (SDMs) is used in conservation to identify geographic areas that are most likely to harbor individuals of interest. In theory, probability of occurrence is coupled with individual fitness so that individuals have higher fitness at the centre of their species environmental niche than at the edges, which we here define as 'fitness-centre' hypothesis. However, such relationship is uncertain and has been rarely tested across multiple species. Here, we quantified the relationship between coarse-scale probability of occurrence projected with SDMs and individual fitness in 66 tree species native of North America. We used 1) field data of individuals' growth rate (height and diameter standardized by age) available from the United States Forest Inventory Analysis plots; and 2) common garden data collected from 23 studies reporting individual growth rate, survival, height and diameter of individuals originated from different provenances in United States and Canada. We show 'fitness-centre' relationships are rare, with only 12% and 11% of cases showing a significant positive correlation for field and common garden data, respectively. Furthermore, we found the 'fitness-centre' relationship is not affected by the precision of the SDMs and it does not depend upon dispersal ability and climatic breath of the species. Thus, although the 'fitness-centre' relationship is supported by theory, it does not hold true in nearly any species. Because individual fitness plays a relevant role in buffering local extinction and range contraction following climatic changes and biotic invasions, our results encourage conservationists not to assume the 'fitness-centre' relationship when modelling species distribution.

show abstract

Section: General Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse‐scale probability of occurrence in North American trees

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Species distribution models (hereinafter SDMs) have been globally recognized as a useful tool in nature conservation and management, for instance, to refine the threat status of a species [61][62][63][64]. When applied to distribution data, they can predict distributions across geographic landscapes by multiple responses, improve image analysis or remote-sensing in order to lead the search for poorly known species [65][66][67][68], thus providing perceptions into the species' habitat, range and abundance [69][70][71][72][73].…”

Section: Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Mendoza-Fernández

Martínez-Hernández

Salmerón-Sánchez

et al. 2020

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea is a shrub belonging to the Celastraceae family, whose only European populations are distributed discontinuously along the south-eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, forming plant communities with great ecological value, unique in Europe. As it is an endangered species that makes up plant communities with great palaeoecological significance, the development of species distribution models is of major interest under different climatic scenarios, past, present and future, based on the fact that the climate could play a relevant role in the distribution of this species, as well as in the conformation of the communities in which it is integrated. Palaeoecological models were generated for the Maximum Interglacial, Last Maximum Glacial and Middle Holocene periods. The results obtained showed that the widest distribution of this species, and the maximum suitability of its habitat, occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the temperatures of the peninsular southeast were not as contrasting as those of the rest of the European continent and were favored by higher rainfall. Under these conditions, large territories could act as shelters during the glacial period, a hypothesis reflected in the model’s results for this period, which exhibit a further expansion of M. europaea’s ecological niche. The future projection of models in around 2070, for four Representative Concentration Pathways according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showed that the most favorable areas for this species would be Campo de Dalías (southern portion of Almería province) as it presents the bioclimatic characteristics of greater adjustment to M. europaea’s ecological niche model. Currently, some of the largest specimens of the species survive in the agricultural landscapes in the southern Spain. These areas are almost totally destroyed and heavily altered by intensive agriculture greenhouses, also causing a severe fragmentation of the habitat, which implies a prospective extinction scenario in the near future.

show abstract

“…For instance, Zhang, Mammola, Liang, et al. (2020) developed a SDM for the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus (Blanchard, 1871)—the world's largest extant amphibian—and found that this species might be extremely vulnerable to climate change and might lose more than two‐thirds of its suitable habitat in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lineage‐level distribution models lead to more realistic climate change predictions for a threatened crayfish

Zhang

Kass

Mammola

et al. 2021

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aim As climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity in the next decades, it is critical to assess its impact on species habitat suitability to inform biodiversity conservation. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a widely used tool to assess climate change impacts on species’ geographical distributions. As the name of these models suggests, the species level is the most commonly used taxonomic unit in SDMs. However, recently it has been demonstrated that SDMs considering taxonomic resolution below (or above) the species level can make more reliable predictions of biodiversity change when different populations exhibit local adaptation. Here, we tested this idea using the Japanese crayfish (Cambaroides japonicus), a threatened species encompassing two geographically structured and phylogenetically distinct genetic lineages. Location Northern Japan. Methods We first estimated niche differentiation between the two lineages of C. japonicus using n‐dimensional hypervolumes and then made climate change predictions of habitat suitability using SDMs constructed at two phylogenetic levels: species and intraspecific lineage. Results Our results showed only intermediate niche overlap, demonstrating measurable niche differences between the two lineages. The species‐level SDM made future predictions that predicted much broader and severe impacts of climate change. However, the lineage‐level SDMs led to reduced climate change impacts overall and also suggested that the eastern lineage may be more resilient to climate change than the western one. Main conclusions The two lineages of C. japonicus occupy different niche spaces. Compared with lineage‐level models, species‐level models can overestimate climate change impacts. These results not only have important implications for designing future conservation strategies for this threatened species, but also highlight the need for incorporating genetic information into SDMs to obtain realistic predictions of biodiversity change.

show abstract

Future climate change will severely reduce habitat suitability of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander

Cited by 53 publications

References 67 publications

Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse‐scale probability of occurrence in North American trees

Individual fitness is decoupled from coarse‐scale probability of occurrence in North American trees

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Lineage‐level distribution models lead to more realistic climate change predictions for a threatened crayfish

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About