Future Evolution of an Eddy Rich Ocean Associated with Enhanced East Atlantic Storminess in a Coupled Model Projection

Grist, Jeremy P.; Josey, Simon A.; Sinha, Bablu; Catto, Jennifer L.; Roberts, Malcolm; Coward, Andrew C.

doi:10.1029/2021gl092719

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In the face of limited computing resources and a demand for finer resolutions in ocean modelling, it is advantageous to reduce net computational effort relative to grid resolution. Existing modelling studies of ocean eddies tend to rely on idealized simulations 10 , ocean-only models 25,26 or simulations limited in spatial coverage, ensemble size or length 15,[27][28][29] . In contrast, the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model 30,31 (FESOM) enables the concentration of computational resources via an unstructured mesh with which the spatial resolution of regions can be adjusted based on relevance to the global climate system and the needs of the user [31][32][33] .…”

Section: Model Performance and Contextualization Of Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

Beech

Rackow²,

Semmler

et al. 2022

Nat. Clim. Chang.

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Mesoscale ocean eddies, an important element of the climate system, impact ocean circulation, heat uptake, gas exchange, carbon sequestration and nutrient transport. Much of what is known about ongoing changes in ocean eddy activity is based on satellite altimetry; however, the length of the altimetry record is limited, making it difficult to distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variability. Using a climate model that exploits a variable-resolution unstructured mesh in the ocean component to enhance grid resolution in eddy-rich regions, we investigate the long-term response of ocean eddy activity to anthropogenic climate change. Eddy kinetic energy is projected to shift poleward in most eddy-rich regions, to intensify in the Kuroshio Current, Brazil and Malvinas currents and Antarctic Circumpolar Current and to decrease in the Gulf Stream. Modelled changes are linked to elements of the broader climate including Atlantic meridional overturning circulation decline, intensifying Agulhas leakage and shifting Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

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Section: Model Performance and Contextualization Of Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

Beech

Rackow²,

Semmler

et al. 2022

Nat. Clim. Chang.

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“…Note, the projections follow the SSP585 future scenario, for full details see Grist et al . [ 23 ]. The figure shows greater warming with the high-resolution ocean particularly at about 45°S, which is north of the Subantarctic Front.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A clearer view of Southern Ocean air–sea interaction using surface heat flux asymmetry

Josey

Grist

Mecking

et al. 2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Progress in understanding Southern Ocean heat exchange and wind forcing is discussed and new results presented. These include a metric of the zonal asymmetry between surface ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian sector and heat loss in the Pacific sector. The asymmetry arises from an intersector variation in the humidity gradient between the sea surface and near-surface atmosphere. This gradient increases by 60% in the Pacific sector enabling a 20 Wm −2 stronger latent heat loss compared with the Atlantic/Indian sector. The new metric is used for intercomparison of atmospheric reanalyses and CMIP6 climate simulations. CMIP6 has weaker Atlantic/Indian sector heat gain compared with the reanalyses primarily due to Indian Ocean sector differences. The potential for surface flux buoys to provide an observation-based counterpart to the asymmetry metric is explored. Over the past decade, flux buoys have been deployed at two sites (south of Tasmania and upstream of Drake Passage). The data record provided by these moorings is assessed and an argument developed for a third buoy to sample the Atlantic/Indian sector of the asymmetry metric. To close, we assess evidence that the main westerly wind belt has strengthened and moved southward in recent decades using the ERA5 reanalysis. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

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“…Previous studies such as Bengtsson et al (2009) and Booth et al (2018) found improved representation of cyclones with higher resolution, and the HighResMIP models have been noted to have considerable benefits compared to standard resolution CMIP6 models in terms of explosive ETC wind speed and tropical cyclone intensity (Jiaxiang et al, 2020;Roberts et al, 2020), which we add further evidence to in this study, with the models offering improvements over their lower resolution counterparts. Improved resolution has also shown to be important in future projections, with higher resolution models projecting greater storminess in the North Atlantic by the end of the century (Grist et al, 2021). Therefore, a key research directive should be to assess what processes associated with higher resolution are driving the improvements in HighResMIP models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Representation of Extratropical Cyclone Structure in HighResMIP Models

Priestley

Catto

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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General circulation models are broadly able to capture the shape and structure of extratropical cyclones. Increased atmospheric resolution has been shown to improve the representation of cyclone structure. However, the intensity of cyclones, and the strength of their winds, are commonly underestimated in models. Using a cyclone compositing technique applied to the new generation HighResMIP and CMIP6 models, the representation of cyclone wind speeds and airstreams is quantified. CMIP6 models are able to capture the structure of cyclones, however winds associated with various airstreams within the cyclones are too weak. HighResMIP models show considerable improvements, with a majority of cyclone‐scale biases present in the CMIP6 models reduced in both winter and summer seasons in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. HighResMIP and CMIP6 models have similar biases on the large‐scale, with both struggling to represent the width of the upper‐level jet.

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Future Evolution of an Eddy Rich Ocean Associated with Enhanced East Atlantic Storminess in a Coupled Model Projection

Cited by 16 publications

References 54 publications

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

A clearer view of Southern Ocean air–sea interaction using surface heat flux asymmetry

Improved Representation of Extratropical Cyclone Structure in HighResMIP Models

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