Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

Greene, David L.; Duleep, K. G.; McManus, Walter

doi:10.2172/885725

Cited by 39 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The assumptions underlying the three scenarios are highlighted in Table 1. Greene et al (2004) with PHEV shares of the hybrid market estimated in EPRI and NRDC (2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Balducci¹

2008

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SummaryThis report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The PHEV offers the range of existing hybrid vehicles, while potentially offering the cost savings and energy benefits of electric vehicles.When considering whether to purchase PHEVs, consumers must weigh the benefits of reduced energy consumption against the cost premium for the PHEV technology. As the cost premium is reduced over time, the PHEV will become more attractive to consumers. There still remain technical questions surrounding the ability of the battery and automotive industries to meet the demand for PHEVs given the current reliance on internal combustion technology and uncertainty associated with the battery technology required to support PHEV development.This report attempts to address some of these questions by presenting and examining a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representatives contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs were forecast from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. The assumptions underlying the three scenarios are highlighted in Table 1. Greene et al. (2004) with PHEV shares of the hybrid market estimated in EPRI and NRDC (2007).-PHEV technology development accelerated as a result of advancements made in hybrid technology. R&D Goals Achieved-Delphi approach asking domain experts for their best judgment, given the following conditions: -$4,000 marginal cost of PHEV technology over existing hybrid technology -40 mile all electric range -100 miles per gallon equivalent -PHEV batteries meet industry standards regarding economic life and safety -Tax incentives, regulations and technical standards favor PHEVs. Supply Constrained-Infusion of PHEVs in marketplace constrained by automotive and battery manufacturers' ability to meet surging demand.-Existing idle off-peak capacity of electric infrastructure able to meet the demand placed on it by 73% of light-duty vehicles in the U.S.Under the Hybrid Technology-Based Assessment scenario, market penetration is forecast to reach 9.7% by 2023 and 11.9% by 2035. Under the R&D Goals Achieved scenario, PHEV iii iv market penetration is forecast to ultimately reach 30%, with 9.9% achieved by 2023 and 27.8% reached by 2035. Finally, the Supply Constrained scenario is forecast to achieve 73% market penetration, with 26.9% reached by 2023, and 68.4% reached by 2035.Barriers to market penetration considered in this report include price, vehicle dependability, battery reliability, battery technology and supply, automotive design, re-design of the manufacturing process, supply chain management, engineering capabilities, raw material constraints, and idle off-peak capacity of electric ...

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“…The assumptions underlying the three scenarios are highlighted in Table 1. Greene et al (2004) with PHEV shares of the hybrid market estimated in EPRI and NRDC (2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Balducci¹

2008

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“…The focus of the studies varies between general AFV forecasting (Ahn, Jeong, and Kim 2008;Beggs, Cardell, and Hausman. 1981;Greene, Duleep, and McManus 2004) or willingness to pay (Batley, Toner, and Knight 2004;Dagsvik et al 2002;Potoglou and Kanarogolou 2007) to more explicit considerations such as policy development and requirements (Cao and Mokhtarian 2004;EST 2007;Janssen et al 2006;Mabit and Fosgerau 2011;Shepherd, Bonsall, and Harrison 2012;Struben and Sterman 2008), wider system impacts (such as environmental or energy demands) (Tran et al 2013) and manufacturer strategies (Walther et al 2010). …”

Section: Model Methodology Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These conditions vary, but include technology improvement without strong government commitment, appropriate timing and co-ordinated policy intervention (Cao and Mokhtarian 2004;Tran et al 2013;Batley, Toner, and Knight 2004). HEV and PiHEV are positioned to be most favourable as they closely resemble ICEV and are a requirement in the success of LCVs as technology matures and consumer confidence is achieved (Ahn, Jeong, and Kim 2008;Dagsvik et al 2002;Greene, Duleep, and McManus et al 2004;Shepherd, Bonsall, and Harrison 2012;Whalter et al;. Due to this, BEV are thought by many to not expect to gain significant market shares until around 2030, even in the most supportive policy regimes (Dagsvik et al;2002, Leiby andRubin 1997;Mabit and Fosgerau 2011;Shepherd, Bonsall, and Harrison 2012) and dedicated CNG, LPG or biofuel ICEV are unlikely to achieve anything more than a niche market position (Ahn, Jeong, and Kim 2008;Dagsvik et al 2002;Janssen et al 2006;Leiby and Rubin 1997).…”

Section: Fuels and Technologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

Harrison

Shepherd

2013

Transportation Planning and Technology

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Engineering, +44 (0113) An Interdisciplinary Study to Explore Impacts from Policies for the Introduction of Low Carbon VehiclesDriven by concerns of climate change, governments across the world are introducing a number of policies to accelerate the uptake of low carbon vehicles, with a specific focus on electric motors. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such policies and technology pathways, which are inherently interlinked. This paper considers the short-term situation to 2020 and focuses on the concern that these policies may bring about some disproportionate impacts in society due to changes in mobility. An ethical framework is established that seeks to balance obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and rights to car ownership, then selected policies are modelled within this framework to assess acceptability of implementation. Although these policies are successful in introducing low carbon vehicles and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, findings also indicate uneven cost burdens and reduced affordability of car ownership.Following this, recommendations for policy amendments and model improvements are made.Keywords: low carbon; electric vehicles; transport policy; ethics; system dynamic modelling IntroductionThis research addresses concerns that transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction policies and the opportunity for car ownership may be in conflict. For over a century, car use has continued to grow in developed countries, to a point where car ownership is no longer viewed as a luxury by many, but as a necessary part of maintaining their current lifestyle. Car ownership is a means to mobility that gives many advantages over other modes, including flexibility, time-savings and independence. Moreover, with many political decisions regarding transport networks and infrastructure since the mid-20th century being biased towards car ownership, some journeys are almost impossible without a car.However, over the last few decades there has been growing recognition and concern over the potential impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and one of the major sources is the transport sector, which accounts for approximately 15% of global GHG emissions (ITF 2010). As such, governments are introducing policies to facilitate a transition to low carbon vehicles (LCVs), which is further driven by other policies on local pollution and resource security. Although the automobile industry has been very much a free market up until now, these policies are being implemented to stimulate the market for LCVs , which consist of small ultraefficient conventional (fossil-fuel powered) Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) in addition to alternative fuels and powertrains. The policies are particularly important as LCV uptake is currently stifled by comparatively high purchase prices and/or perceived inferior attributes to current technologies.The concern which has driven this work is that although these technologies are necessary they, and the policies to p...

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“…At the same time, our results are optimistic about the market penetration of HEVs, relative to studies based on other approaches. [23] for example, concluded that HEVs would capture a 7.1% of the light-duty vehicle market by 2008, and a 14.9% by 2012. They predict, however, that b[b]ecause of their higher costs the combined market share of diesels and hybrids is likely to be limited to half or less than half of all light-duty vehicles even in the long-run, unless policy and market conditions change significantly in their favor.…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…55.) We believe that not only these two concerns, but also rapidly increasing global demand for oil and changing consumer perceptions of HEVs, are very likely to generate policy and market incentives for the development of markets for HEVs beyond the levels predicted in [23].…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

Collantes

2007

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies. D

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Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

Cited by 39 publications

References 11 publications

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

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