Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Aquaculture Projections

Abstract

Kreiss et al. Future Socio-Political Scenarios Aquaculture returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections

“…The present study and its two companion studies (Kreiss et al, 2020;Pinnegar et al, 2021) underscore the importance of using a common scenario framework for comparing potential climate impacts, identifying winners and losers and adapting management accordingly. We advocate extending and applying these CERES scenarios, or something very similar such as the "Oceanic System Pathways" (OSPs) developed by Maury et al (2017), in other bio-economic projections of climate impacts on fisheries (e.g., within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP)).…”

“…The EU funded research project CERES created and tested a set of contrasting socio-political and climate change scenarios (Kreiss et al, 2020;Pinnegar et al, 2021) to inform both industry and policymakers on the potential future development of fisheries and aquaculture in Europe. Such information is needed to develop climate adaptation plans.…”

Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

“…For example, country-specific projections for economic growth (Dellink et al, 2017), human population growth (Samir and Lutz, 2017); urbanization (Jiang and O'Neill, 2017); land use (Popp et al, 2017) and energy use (Bauer et al, 2017) were all available under each SSP and therefore the corresponding CERES scenario. However, these high-level statistics proved insufficient on their own for the more complex bioeconomic modeling activities envisaged within the CERES project (see Kreiss et al, 2020;Hamon et al, under review). Consequently, it was necessary to obtain more comprehensive projections of fuel and fish prices from another source.…”

“…This wide-ranging project involved participants from 15 European countries and 26 organizations (including universities, government research agencies, and industry stakeholders), spanning the whole continent (with case studies termed 'Storylines' from the Arctic to the Black Sea and from the open ocean to inland waters). During the first 6 months of the project, sociopolitical-economic narratives (henceforth known as the 'CERES scenarios') were developed, that were in-turn translated into quantitative combinations of drivers that could be used for regional modeling (see Kreiss et al, 2020;Hamon et al, under review, on fisheries and aquaculture, respectively). The four CERES Scenarios were deployed in all subsequent work packages of the project, and in a wide variety of CERES project deliverables (see for a summary).…”

“…In the present paper, we describe the ethos and assumptions behind each of the CERES scenarios and how the four scenarios were derived. This paper is the first of a series of three in this IMBeR special issue of Frontiers in Marine Science and should be read alongside that of Hamon et al (under review) on fisheries and Kreiss et al (2020) on aquaculture. Elements of the scenarios are presented using the PESTEL approach, a concept that stems from the business world and is frequently used as an aide memoire to examine external factors that have an influence on a particular business or company (Johnson et al, 2017).…”