Gang truce for violence prevention, El Salvador

Abstract

ObjectiveTo estimate the effects on homicide rates of the gang truce that was brokered in El Salvador in 2012.MethodsMathematical models based on municipal-level census, crime and gang-intelligence data were used to estimate the effect of the truce on homicide rates. One model estimated the overall effect after accounting for the linear trend and seasonality in the homicide rate. In a moderated-effect model, we investigated the relationship between the truce effect and the numbers of MS13 (Mara Salvatrucha 13) and Eighteenth-Street gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population. We then ran each of these two models with additional control variables. We compared values before the truce – 1 January 2010 to 29 February 2012 – with those after the truce – 1 March 2012 to 31 December 2013.FindingsThe overall-effect models with and without additional control variables indicated a homicide rate after the truce that was significantly lower than the value before the truce, giving rate ratios of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.49–0.63) and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54–0.69), respectively. For any given municipality, the effectiveness of the truce appeared to increase as the number of MS13 gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population increased. We did not observe the same significant relationship for imprisoned Eighteenth-Street gang members.ConclusionIn the 22 months following the establishment of a national gang truce, the homicide rate was about 40% lower than in the preceding 26 months. The truce’s impact appeared particularly strong in municipalities with relatively high numbers of imprisoned MS13 gang members per 100 000 population.

The Politics of Negotiating with Gangs. The Case of El Salvador

“…By the end of 2012, the country had experienced a drop of nearly 1800 homicides in comparison with the previous year. The homicide rate plunged to 41.2 deaths per 100,000 people in 2012: a 43 percent decrease in lethal violence (Katz et al, ). The truce resulting from the compromises between the gangs and the government became the most successful strategy in reducing homicidal violence in El Salvador since the 1992 Peace Accords.…”

“…These groups are viewed as responsible for much of the criminal violence that occurs in El Salvador (UNODC, ). Shortly after the truce was called, murder rates in El Salvador dropped by approximately 40 percent (Katz, Hedberg and Amaya, ) and the Organisation of American States (OAS) moved in to provide political backing to the negotiation process. The truce was the result of a plan coordinated by the Salvadoran government to bring down the soaring levels of homicidal violence between the gangs.…”

Between New Terrains and Old Dichotomies: Peacebuilding and the Gangs’ Truce in El Salvador

“…This strategy was successful in achieving a short-term negative peace by reducing the homicides for at least 12 months (Katz, Hedberg and Amaya 2016). The halt in homicides ordered by the gangs' hierarchy in prison occurred in exchange for the improvement of inmates' conditions and the transfer of the gang leaders from a maximumsecurity prison to other establishments, which was justified as a way to better communicate their orders to the members outside the prison.…”

“…This process was facilitated by civil society actors, who were in fact supported by President Funes' administration, and resulted in a historical drop in homicides at least in the first 12 months (Katz, Hedberg and Amaya 2016). However, when it officially ended, the homicides reached an unprecedented peak, achieving the highest level since 2000, with almost 1,000 homicides taking place only in August 2015 (El Faro 2015).…”

Conceptual and empirical obstacles in defining MS‐13

“…There has been an increase in scholarly attention to gangs generally (American Society of Criminology, 2018; Conway, 2017) and MS‐13 specifically (see Diaz, 2009; Katz, Hedberg, & Amaya, 2016; Martínez d'Aubuisson, 2015; McGuire, 2007; Roque, 2017; Ward, 2013; Wolf, 2014, 2017; Zilberg, 2004, 2007, 2011). Little empirical research on the gang has been conducted to date, however.…”