Generalized Synchronization Between ENSO and Hydrological Variables in Colombia: A Recurrence Quantification Approach

Salas, Hernán; Poveda, Germán; Sánchez, Óscar José Mesa; Marwan, Norbert

doi:10.3389/fams.2020.00003

Cited by 26 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…In the Pacific region the maximum correlation between ONI and precipitation is ≈0.65, while in the Amazon and Orinoco regions, correlations are not statistically significant. These results are in agreement with those found by Salas et al [100].…”

Section: Climate Of Colombiasupporting

confidence: 94%

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

Muñoz

Poveda

Arbeláez

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize diverse temporal and spatial patterns of monthly series of dengue incidence in diverse regions of Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different spatial scales, and their association with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables. For estimation purposes, we use linear analysis tools including lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary (there is a reduction of DENV cases since 2005) and local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one site to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Specific regions (Pacific and Andes) control the overall relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale, and the departments of Antioquia and Valle del Cauca determine those of the Andes and Pacific regions, respectively. Cross wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.

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Section: Climate Of Colombiasupporting

confidence: 94%

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

Muñoz

Poveda

Arbeláez

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Major knowledge gaps still remain regarding the non-linear interactions and synchronicity (e.g., Boers et al, 2014Boers et al, , 2016Salas et al, 2020) between the dynamics of the CHOCO, Caribbean and Orinoco LLJs, and the SALLJ with other macroclimatic phenomena and modes of variability at a wide range of temporal scales, and their association with the occurrence of extreme events, including PDO, AMO, NAO, IOD, QBO, SAM, and the Tropical Atlantic SST Dipole. Also, the interplay between highfrequency variability modes (e.g., equatorial waves, gravity waves, MJO, etc.)…”

Section: Research Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Impact Weather Events in the Andes

et al. 2020

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Owing to the extraordinary latitudinal extent, a strong orographic variability with very high mountain tops, and the presence of deep valleys and steep slopes, the Andes and the population of the region are highly prone and vulnerable to the impacts of a large suite of extreme weather events. Here we provide a review of the most salient events in terms of losses of human and animal lives, economic and monetary losses in costs and damages, and social disruption, namely: (1) extreme precipitation events and related processes (Mesoscale Convective Systems, lightning), (2) cold spells, frosts, and high winds, (3) the impacts of ENSO on extreme hydro-meteorological events, (4) floods, (5) landslides, mudslides, avalanches, and (6) droughts, heat waves and fires. For our purposes, we focus this review on three distinctive regions along the Andes: Northern tropical (north of 8 • S), Southern tropical (8 • S-27 • S) and Extratropical Andes (south of 27 • S). Research gaps are also identified and discussed at the end of this review. It is very likely that climate change will increase the vulnerability of the millions of inhabitants of the Andes, impacting their livelihoods and the sustainable development of the region into the twenty first century amidst urbanization, deforestation, air, soil and water pollution, and land use changes.

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“…Previous studies have shown that NOSA is particularly sensitive to the influence of ENSO (Poveda and Mesa, 1996;Poveda et al, 2006;Hoyos et al, 2019b;Salas et al, 2020;Arias et al, 2021). In general, EN events induce reductions in precipitation and runoff in the region (Córdoba-Machado et al, 2015;Serna et al, 2018;Canchala et al, 2020) while LN events are associated with the opposite (Hoyos et al, 2013;Arias et al, 2015).…”

Section: Regional Hadley Cell During Enso Eventsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…The positive phase of the ENSO, known as El Niño (EN), is associated with reduction in precipitation and increase in near-surface temperature over the region. By contrast, its counterpart or negative phase, known as La Niña (LN), is associated with an increase in precipitation and a reduction in near-surface temperatures (Poveda and Mesa, 1996;Wang, 2004;Capotondi et al, 2015;Salas et al, 2020). These changes in near-surface temperature associated with the ENSO phases modify the strength of winds (both easterlies and westerlies) that also explain precipitation differences in both EN and LN (Mesa-Sánchez and Rojo-Hernández, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO Influence on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Thermodynamics Over Northern South America

Ruiz-Vásquez

Arias

Martínez

2021

Preprint

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The interannual variability of hydroclimatic conditions in Northern South America (NOSA), specially precipitation, is mainly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We explored potential mechanisms that affect precipitation occurrence in NOSA during El Niño and La Niña events over the period 1980-2019, using data from the ERA5 reanalysis. We looked at the atmospheric moisture contribution from different sources using the Dynamic Recycling Model to track water vapour trajectories. Interestingly, conditions with reduced precipitation during El Niño events can take place along with increased precipitable water. To understand this, we analyzed thermodynamic conditions in the atmosphere that are necessary for precipitation to occur over the region, such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, lifting condensation level and low--level relative humidity. With this approach, we found more favorable atmospheric conditions for the occurrence of precipitation during La Niña events, even if the content of water vapor was equal or even less than during El Niño events. We also looked at the structure of the regional Hadley circulation in both types of events and found a weakening of the rising motion of the cell during El Niño, which further reduces convective processes over this region. This study provides an integral picture of how precipitation anomalies over NOSA during ENSO events are related both to thermodynamic conditions and sources of atmospheric moisture.

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Generalized Synchronization Between ENSO and Hydrological Variables in Colombia: A Recurrence Quantification Approach

Cited by 26 publications

References 82 publications

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

High Impact Weather Events in the Andes

ENSO Influence on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Thermodynamics Over Northern South America

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