Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model

Höök, Mikael; Zittel, Werner; Schindler, Jörg; Aleklett, K.

doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013

Cited by 160 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Bardi (2005) found that although bell shaped behaviour is typical for fossil fuel and mineral extraction, the curve is not necessarily symmetric. This finding is also in agreement with empirical data for coal, oil and many other resources that show production peaks, but not necessarily a presence of symmetric curve shapes (Bardi, 2007;Brandt, 2007;Höök and Aleklett, 2010;Höök et al, 2010a). Caithamer (2008) expressed a need to rethink the logistic curve and apply more flexible curve types.…”

Section: Aim Of This Studysupporting

confidence: 82%

“…Their model resulted in an asymmetric bell shaped production forecast that returns the same outlook as the simple growth curve fit executed by other researchers using equivalent resource constraints (Energywatch group, 2007;Patzek and Croft, 2010;Höök et al, 2010a). This may be seen as an indication that growth curves can be a sound tool capable of yielding results similar to more detailed and complicated models.…”

Section: Concluding Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

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Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

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This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

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Section: Aim Of This Studysupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Concluding Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

Self Cite

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“…C oal is the most affordable energy resource currently being isolated (Supplementary Table S1) and consumed (Supplementary Table S2) worldwide 1 . The structure of coal is complex [2][3][4][5] ; the simplified composition contains angstrom or nanometre-sized crystalline carbon domains with defects that are linked by aliphatic amorphous carbon 6 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Coal as an abundant source of graphene quantum dots

et al. 2013

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Coal is the most abundant and readily combustible energy resource being used worldwide. However, its structural characteristic creates a perception that coal is only useful for producing energy via burning. Here we report a facile approach to synthesize tunable graphene quantum dots from various types of coal, and establish that the unique coal structure has an advantage over pure sp 2 -carbon allotropes for producing quantum dots. The crystalline carbon within the coal structure is easier to oxidatively displace than when pure sp 2 -carbon structures are used, resulting in nanometre-sized graphene quantum dots with amorphous carbon addends on the edges. The synthesized graphene quantum dots, produced in up to 20% isolated yield from coal, are soluble and fluorescent in aqueous solution, providing promise for applications in areas such as bioimaging, biomedicine, photovoltaics and optoelectronics, in addition to being inexpensive additives for structural composites.

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“…Concerning the coal market, for the recent period of time (after 1999 until nowadays) we are in presence of an efficient market whereas for the previous one (before 1999), we alternate between short and long memory markets periods. This global pattern of the market might be explained by the magnitude of the trading of coal since the beginning of this century (Höök, Zittel, Schindler, Aleklett, 2010).…”

Section: Figure 1: Rolling Regression On Hurst Exponentmentioning

confidence: 99%

A "Hurst Coefficient" Estimation With Wavelets: Application to the Energy Sector

Fouquau

Spieser

2015

ESR

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The energy financial products prices could be affected by herding behavior, speculation and also by supply and demand of the physical assets. This situation is likely to generate economic cycles and a rejection of the efficiency market hypothesis. Then, the aim of this paper is to check the presence of memory in the energy Futures prices. We calculate a useful parameter the "Hurst coefficient", by using a specific tool coming from the signal theory, the wavelet decomposition. Our findings with rolling regressions are that most markets, since the beginning of 90ties, are in a process of maturity and show less and less memory of any type (short or long). Electricity displays long memory, whereas the crude oil markets present some short memory.

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Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model

Cited by 160 publications

References 40 publications

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Coal as an abundant source of graphene quantum dots

A "Hurst Coefficient" Estimation With Wavelets: Application to the Energy Sector

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