Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

Abstract

The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the needs of ongoing national and international discussions. To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established research centers at MIT: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers bridge many key areas of the needed intellectual work. Additional essential areas are covered by other MIT departments, by collaboration with the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole, and by short-and long-term visitors to the Program. The Program involves sponsorship and active participation by industry, government, and non-profit organizations.To inform processes of policy development and implementation, climate change research needs to focus on improving the prediction of those variables that are most relevant to economic, social, and environmental effects. In turn, the greenhouse gas and atmospheric aerosol assumptions underlying climate analysis need to be related to the economic, technological, and political forces that drive emissions, and to the results of international agreements and mitigation. Further, assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and analysis of mitigation strategies, need to be based on realistic evaluation of the uncertainties of climate science.This report is one of a series intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of climate issues, thereby contributing to informed debate about the climate issue, the uncertainties, and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. Titles in the Report Series to date are listed on the inside back cover.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

“…This further strengthens the consistency between emission scenarios and assessment of the impacts on terrestrial systems. Using IGSM, Reilly et al (2007) find that the effects of climate change and CO 2 on crops, pasture and forests are, in general, positive over the current century. The effects of ozone are, however very detrimental, and the benefits of CO 2 and climate may vanish unless ozone is strongly controlled.…”

“…Unmanaged ecosystems and forests expand, while food crops and livestock prices rise. Reilly et al (2007) study the combined effect of climate change, CO 2 concentrations and ozone, and find that agriculture and forestry can adapt successfully to climatic changes if compared with the initial impacts on the natural environment. They emphasize, however, that the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of these changes will have to be considered with reference to the adequate measures of well-being rather than on the results for the sectors in question, thereby underlining the importance of using a comprehensive integrated tool for evaluations of impacts of climate change.…”

“…With the exception of the ISGM model (Reilly et al 2007), global models with a rough representation of an ecological system are sector models. For more detailed descriptions of ecosystems, one has to turn to integrated, regional models.…”

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change

“…Reilly et al (2007) find that climate change below 3°C relative to 2000 levels would have a positive effect on agriculture production because of this effect (when the negative impact of ozone on agriculture production is not considered).…”

Impacts of Europe's changing climate – 2008 indicator based assessment

“…These may affect livestock and ultimately humans as well as crops. In addition, the increase in ozone concentrations related to climate change ) is projected to have significant negative impacts on agriculture, mainly in northern mid-latitudes (Reilly et al, 2007).…”