Global impacts of projected climate changes on the extent and aboveground biomass of mangrove forests

Abstract

Aim: Over the past 50 years, anthropogenic activities have led to the disappearance of approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests and their associated ecosystem services. The synergetic combined effect of projected climate change is likely to further impact mangroves in the years to come, whether by range expansions associated with warming at higher latitudes or large-scale diebacks linked to severe droughts. We provide an estimate of future changes in the extent and aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forests at global scales by considering contrasting Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (decade 2090-2100 under RCP 2.6 in line with the Paris Agreement expectations, and RCP 8.5 of higher emissions). Location: Global.Methods: Boosted regression trees fitted occurrence and AGB of mangroves against high-resolution biologically meaningful data on air temperature, precipitation, wave energy, slope and distance to river Deltas. Results:On the global scale, models produced for present-day conditions retrieved high accuracy scores and estimated a total area of 12,780,356 ha and overall biomass of 2.29 Pg, in line with previous estimates. Model projections showed poleward shifts along temperate regions, which translated into comparable gains in total area, regardless of the RCP scenario (area change RCP 2.6: 17.29%; RCP 8.5: 15.77%).However, biomass changes were dependent on the emission scenario considered, remaining stable or even increasing under RCP 2.6, or undergoing severe losses across tropical regions under RCP 8.5 (overall biomass change RCP 2.6: 12.97%; RCP 8.5: −11.51%). Such losses were particularly aggravated in countries located in the Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Western and Eastern Indo-Pacific regions (regions with losses above ~20% in overall biomass). Conclusions:Our global estimates highlight the potential effect of future climate changes on mangrove forests and how broad compliance with the Paris Agreement may counteract severe trajectories of loss. The projections made, also provided at the country level, serve as new baselines to evaluate changes in mangrove carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, strongly supporting policy-making and

Bio‐ORACLE v3.0. Pushing marine data layers to the CMIP6 Earth System Models of climate change research

“…Moreover, the development of biologically meaningful variables for future climate change scenarios (e.g. dissolved oxygen, primary productivity and pH) allows more realistic estimates of the anthropogenic pressures that may lead to extinction and turnover of populations (Assis, Serrão, et al., 2022; Gouvêa et al., 2022; Martins et al., 2021).…”

“…Research quantifying the impacts of climate change on biodiversity relies heavily on species distribution modelling (Peterson et al., 2011) using high‐resolution data layers representing physical, chemical and biological conditions of the global ocean (Assis, Tyberghein, et al., 2017; Fick & Hijmans, 2017; Tyberghein et al., 2012). Initiatives providing essential climate layers uniform in extent and resolution, like MERRAclim (Vega et al., 2017) and WorldClim (Fick & Hijmans, 2017) for terrestrial environments and the World Ocean Atlas (Levitus et al., 2013), Hexacoral (Fautin & Buddemeier, 2006), Marspec (Sbrocco & Barber, 2013), Bio‐ORACLE (Assis, Tyberghein, et al., 2017; Tyberghein et al., 2012) and OCLE (de la Hoz et al., 2018) for marine environments, established solid standards to estimate future climate‐induced pressures on the world's ecosystems and associated ecosystem services (Assis, Berecibar, et al., 2017; Assis, Serrão, et al., 2022; Gouvêa et al., 2020, 2022; Martins et al., 2021). But despite their relevance, current marine data sets have three main limitations that can preclude the development of well‐informed research, conservation and management strategies (Arafeh‐Dalmau et al., 2021; Arneth et al., 2020).…”

“…There are, however, inherent uncertainties of ESMs projections due to the complexity of the Earth's climate system, as well as the limited understanding and the challenges in incorporating particular processes in the models. Accordingly, the multi‐model ensemble offers a straightforward approach in species distribution modelling (Araújo & New, 2007; Assis, Tyberghein, et al., 2017; Gouvêa et al., 2022), yet at the cost of incorporating ESM that do not perform well in reproducing historical climates over time (please refer to the ‘hot model’ problem; Hausfather et al., 2022). The previous version of Bio‐ORACLE (Assis, Tyberghein, et al., 2017) was based on a multi‐model ensemble, yet limited to two ESMs from the dozens available, limiting the breadth of projections of climate change impact.…”

Development of Environmental Pollution Handling Flipbook Based on Surabaya Local Wisdom to Train Students’ Ethno-conservation

“…This makes the estuary and coastal areas vulnerable to contamination. If mangrove ecosystems are damaged, it will disrupt the impact of the various ecosystem services they provide, most importantly, their role in carbon sequestration (Gouvêa et al, 2022). To prove this, students carried out a simple practicum entitled "Analysis of Wonorejo Mangrove Soil Quality."…”

Mapping mangrove above ground carbon stock of benoa bay bali using sentinel-1 satellite imagery

“…AGB is defined as the dry weight of organic matter produced and stored in above-ground living vegetation, including stems, branches, bark, seeds, and leaves [5]. Estimation of AGB has received attention in recent decades as a result of growing awareness of global warming caused by climate change and the critical role of mangrove forest biomass in the absorption and release of greenhouse gas carbon due to deforestation [6]. In addition, AGB can be estimated using destructive sampling methods, in which trees are felled and weighed, or non-destructive methods such as estimation based on allometric equations developed using dimensional trees such as diameter at breast height (dbh) and tree height.…”