Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene

Inglis, Gordon N.; Bragg, Fran; Burls, Natalie J.; Evans, David; Foster, Gavin L; Huber, Matthew; Lunt, Daniel; Siler, Nicholas; Steinig, Sebastian; Wilkinson, Richard; Anagnostou, Eleni; Cramwinckel, Margot J.; Hollis, Christopher J.; Pancost, Richard D.; Tierney, Jessica E.

doi:10.5194/cp-2019-167

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The Case for the Miocene as a Future Climate Analog Study of pre-Quaternary warm climates using geological records and computer simulations is an important avenue for understanding the environmental changes humanity faces in our warming future. Focus has often been on the (1) strong greenhouse climate of the early Eocene (∼50 Ma) when atmospheric concentration of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) was highly elevated (>1,000 ppm) and global mean temperatures ∼13°C warmer than today (Burke et al, 2018;Inglis et al, 2020), and (2) the chronologically closer mid Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) , characterized by now sub-modern pCO 2 (∼400 ppm), with average global warming of 2°C-3°C (Burke et al, 2018;Pagani et al, 2010). Different continental positions, as well as vegetation and fauna, make the much older Eocene an imperfect future analog, while pCO 2 of the mid Pliocene has already been surpassed (pCO 2 measured at Mona Loa reached 416 ppm at time of writing, see: https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2), with PWP-like climates predicted as soon as 2030 (Burke et al, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

The Miocene: The Future of the Past

Steinthorsdottir

Coxall

Boer

et al. 2021

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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The Miocene epoch (23.03-5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today.Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, and many flora and fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist today. Miocene climate was dynamic: long periods of early and late glaciation bracketed a ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval-the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation, pCO 2 , and ocean and atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures and moderately higher pCO 2 (∼400-600 ppm), the MCO has been suggested as a particularly appropriate analog for future climate scenarios, and for assessing the predictive accuracy of numerical climate models-the same models that are used to simulate future climate. Yet, Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re-interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model-data discrepancy. Our understanding of Miocene climatic, biogeochemical, and oceanic changes on broad spatial and temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting the physical, chemical, and biotic aspects of the Earth system are emerging, and together provide a more comprehensive understanding of this important time interval. Here, we review the state-of-the-art in Miocene climate, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, ice sheet dynamics, and biotic adaptation research as inferred through proxy observations and modeling studies. Plain Language Summary During the Miocene time period (∼23-5 million years ago),Planet Earth looked similar to today, with some important differences: the climate was generally warmer and highly variable, while atmospheric CO 2 was not much higher. Continental-sized ice sheets were only present on Antarctica, but not in the northern hemisphere. The continents drifted to near their modernday positions, and plants and animals evolved into the many (near) modern species. Scientists study the Miocene because present-day and projected future CO 2 levels are in the same range as those reconstructed for the Miocene. Therefore, if we can understand climate changes and their biotic responses from the Miocene past, we are able to better predict current and future global changes. By comparing Miocene climate reconstructions from fossil and chemical data to climate simulations produced by computer models, scientists are able to test their understanding of the Earth system under higher CO 2 and warmer conditions than those of today. This helps in constraining future warming scenarios for the coming STEINTHORSDOTTIR ET AL.

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confidence: 99%

The Miocene: The Future of the Past

Steinthorsdottir

Coxall

Boer

et al. 2021

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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270

179

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“…The MMCO covered an average increase in global temperature of 3–4 °C coincident with oceans becoming more depleted in 12 C relative to 13 C than at any other time in the past 50 Ma, and resulting from volcanic degassing, global warming, and sea-level rise 61 . This correlation is also observable during the middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) and the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), with high global temperatures, high CO 2 levels, and an increase in precipitation probably resulting from elevated volcanic emissions 62 – 64 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

A revised definition for copal and its significance for palaeontological and Anthropocene biodiversity-loss studies

Solórzano-Kraemer

Delclòs

Engel

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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The early fossilization steps of natural resins and associated terminology are a subject of constant debate. Copal and resin are archives of palaeontological and historical information, and their study is critical to the discovery of new and/or recently extinct species and to trace changes in forests during the Holocene. For such studies, a clear, suitable definition for copal is vital and is herein established. We propose an age range for copal (2.58 Ma—1760 AD), including Pleistocene and Holocene copals, and the novel term "Defaunation resin", defined as resin produced after the commencement of the Industrial Revolution. Defaunation resin is differentiated from Holocene copal as it was produced during a period of intense human transformative activities. Additionally, the “Latest Amber Bioinclusions Gap” (LABG) since the late Miocene to the end of the Pleistocene is hereby newly defined, and is characterized by its virtual absence of bioinclusions and the consequent lack of palaeontological information, which in part explains the historical differentiation between amber and copal. Crucial time intervals in the study of resin production, and of the biodiversity that could be contained, are now clarified, providing a framework for and focusing future research on bioinclusions preserved in copal and resin.

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“…Compilation of middle Eocene TEX 86 ‐based sea surface temperatures. Site 647 (red) data plotted together with published TEX 86 data from the Atlantic basin: ODP Site 913, Norwegian‐Greenland Sea (gray) (Inglis et al, 2015, 2020; Liu et al, 2009); Kysing‐4 borehole, North Sea Basin (light blue) (Śliwińska et al, 2019); ODP Site 925, equatorial Atlantic Ocean (pink) (Liu et al, 2009); ODP Site 959, equatorial Atlantic Ocean (orange) (Cramwinckel et al, 2018); Site 1263, subtropical South Atlantic Ocean (purple) (Boscolo‐Galazzo et al, 2014); and South Dover Bridge, Atlantic coastal plain (blue) (Inglis et al, 2015). TEX 86 record from Site 1172 (green) (Bijl et al, 2009, 2010) added as a high southern latitude end‐member.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Importantly, Eocene boundary conditions were very different from today, with higher temperatures, intensified hydrological cycling, and a different shape and bathymetry of the Atlantic Ocean (e.g., Seton et al, 2012). Estimates of global mean temperature indicate this dropped from about 27–29°C in the early Eocene to 23–26°C during the middle Eocene and ~19°C during the late Eocene (Cramwinckel et al, 2018; Inglis et al, 2020). A warmer climate by itself results in enhanced hydrological cycling, with an increased contrast between regions of excess evaporation in the subtropics and excess precipitation at high latitudes (Held & Soden, 2006; Pierrehumbert, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Warm, Stratified, and Restricted Labrador Sea Across the Middle Eocene and Its Climatic Optimum

Cramwinckel

Coxall

Śliwińska

et al. 2020

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Several studies indicate that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation might have initiated during the globally warm Eocene (56-34 Ma). However, constraints on Eocene surface ocean conditions in source regions presently conducive to deep water formation are sparse. Here we test whether ocean conditions of the middle Eocene Labrador Sea might have allowed for deep water formation by applying (organic) geochemical and palynological techniques, on sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 647. We reconstruct a long-term sea surface temperature (SST) drop from~30°C to~27°C between 41.5 to 38.5 Ma, based on TEX 86. Superimposed on this trend, we record~2°C warming in SST associated with the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO;~40 Ma), which is the northernmost MECO record as yet, and another, likely regional, warming phase at~41.1 Ma, associated with low-latitude planktic foraminifera and dinoflagellate cyst incursions. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages together with planktonic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope ratios overall indicate low surface water salinities and strong stratification. Benthic foraminifer stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios differ from global deep ocean values by 1-2‰ and 2-4‰, respectively, indicating geographic basin isolation. Our multiproxy reconstructions depict a consistent picture of relatively warm and fresh but also highly variable surface ocean conditions in the middle Eocene Labrador Sea. These conditions were unlikely conducive to deep water formation. This implies either NADW did not yet form during the middle Eocene or it formed in a different source region and subsequently bypassed the southern Labrador Sea.

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Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene

Cited by 11 publications

References 16 publications

The Miocene: The Future of the Past

The Miocene: The Future of the Past

A revised definition for copal and its significance for palaeontological and Anthropocene biodiversity-loss studies

A Warm, Stratified, and Restricted Labrador Sea Across the Middle Eocene and Its Climatic Optimum

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