Global Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses: Predicting Pandemics

Abstract

As successive epidemics have swept the world, the scientific community has quickly learned from them about the emergence and transmission of communicable diseases. Epidemics usually occur when health systems are unprepared. During an unexpected epidemic, health authorities engage in damage control, fear drives action, and the desire to understand the threat is greatest. As humanity recovers, policy-makers seek scientific expertise to improve their "preparedness" to face future events.Global spread of disease is exemplified by the spread of yellow fever from Africa to the Americas, by the spread of dengue fever through transcontinental migration of mosquitos, by the relentless influenza virus pandemics, and, most recently, by the unexpected emergence of Ebola virus, spread by motorbike and long haul carriers. Other pathogens that are remarkable for their epidemic expansions include the arenavirus hemorrhagic fevers and hantavirus diseases carried by rodents over great geographic distances and the arthropod-borne viruses (West Nile, chikungunya and Zika) enabled by ecology and vector adaptations. Did we learn from the past epidemics? Are we prepared for the worst?The ultimate goal is to develop a resilient global health infrastructure. Besides acquiring treatments, vaccines, and other preventive medicine, bio-surveillance is critical to preventing disease emergence and to counteracting its spread. So far, only the western hemisphere has a large and established monitoring system; however, diseases continue to emerge sporadically, in particular in Southeast Asia and South America, illuminating the imperfections of our surveillance. Epidemics destabilize fragile governments, ravage the most vulnerable populations, and threaten the global community.Pandemic risk calculations employ new technologies like computerized maintenance of geographical and historical datasets, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Next Generation sequencing, and Metagenomics to trace the molecular changes in pathogens during their emergence, and mathematical models to assess risk. Predictions help to pinpoint the hot spots of emergence, the populations at risk, and the pathogens under genetic evolution. Preparedness anticipates the risks, the needs of the population, the capacities of infrastructure, the sources of emergency funding, and finally, the international partnerships needed to manage a disaster before it occurs. At present, the world is in an intermediate phase of trying to reduce health disparities despite exponential population growth, political conflicts, migration, global trade, urbanization, and major environmental changes due to global warming. For the sake of humanity, we must focus on developing the necessary capacities for health surveillance, epidemic preparedness, and pandemic response.

Climate Change And Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever In Banggai Regency

“…To date, illness monitoring and vector development efforts that are reliable and integrated have not been widely applied in many countries, especially in tropical Southeast Asian countries. This is also consistent with the increase in sporadic diseases related to the lack of monitoring efforts [13].…”

“…The results of Qureshi et al's study showed that humid conditions were significant in postrain (p = 0.024) [19]. The tropics have high humidity and the potential to breed aedes agypti mosquitoes [13]. After sucking blood, Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes then produce eggs.…”

Geospatial Science and Point-of-Care Testing: Creating Solutions for Population Access, Emergencies, Outbreaks, and Disasters

“…A GIS is designed to capture, store, manipulate, analyze, manage, optimize, and present a broad spectrum of geographical data relevant to the task at hand. While the healthcare literature is replete with GIS papers, some proving efficacy for highly infectious diseases, such as Ebola (84)(85)(86)(87), Solution 4 lists only those that combined both POC and GIS concepts, especially the analysis of population access in terms of travel time (Figure 8), an important criteria for deciding where to place POCT.…”

Essay on the Elusive Natural History of Ebola Viruses

“…Today, with the endless epidemic unfolding in the DRC, should we revisit our tools and strategy of struggle in an ever-changing world? [64].…”