Globally Extended Kӧppen–Geiger climate classification and temporal shifts in terrestrial climatic types

Rohli, Robert V.; Joyner, T. Andrew; Reynolds, Stephen J.; Shaw, Cynthia E.; Vázquez, Javier R.

doi:10.1080/02723646.2015.1016382

Cited by 72 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Summers are typically dry, with low contributions to annual precipitation (\10 %), while winters are rainy ([30 %). July mean temperatures (warmest month) show the highest values ([22°C) over southern Portugal and low-altitude areas of interior Portugal, differentiating the Csa (temperate Mediterranean, dry and hot summer) from Csb (temperate Mediterranean, dry and warm summer) climates (Rohli et al 2015).…”

Section: Forest Species Under Current Climatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

et al. 2016

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As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at *1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species' current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past and future climates (2041-2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of *54 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of *13 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean subhumid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.

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Section: Forest Species Under Current Climatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

et al. 2016

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“…Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined ( figures 1-4), facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. The data reported here present a major advance over earlier attempts at mapping bioclimate shifts (e.g Alessandri et al 2014, Beck et al 2005, Belda et al 2016, Jylhä et al 2010, Leemans et al 1996, Mahlstein et al 2013, Metzger et al 2008, Rohli et al 2015, Saxon et al 2005, Wang and Overland 2004 due to its greater thematic resolution (125 strata) and spatial resolution (5 arcmin). Its global coverage also provides consistency for comparative analyses, and provides the potential for the dataset to be used as a consistent tool for global assessments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

Soteriades

Murray-Rust

Trabucco

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Notably, the increase in arid climate is mostly due to shifts over the warm temperate climate that includes the Mediterranean climate type. In other study, Rohli et al (2015a) assessed global climate shifts in both land and oceans under SRES scenario A1FI. Among other findings, their results suggest that the arid climate is projected to expand by 1% over land areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

Barredo

Mauri

Caudullo

et al. 2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (* 157,000 km 2 ) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones.

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Globally Extended Kӧppen–Geiger climate classification and temporal shifts in terrestrial climatic types

Cited by 72 publications

References 60 publications

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

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