Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Abstract

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at *1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species' current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past and future climates (2041-2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of *54 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of *13 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean subhumid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.

Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

“…The bioclimatic classification plays a relevant role in establishing relationships between ecosystems and climate (Del‐Arco et al ., 2002; Mesquita and Sousa, 2009; Cano et al ., 2012; Torregrosa et al ., 2013; Pesaresi et al ., 2014; Aguilera et al ., 2015; Monteiro‐Henriques et al ., 2016). On a regional scale, this assessment allows a better understanding of the impact of climate change in the agroforestry systems (Costa et al ., 2017; del Río et al ., 2018). The Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) establishes relationships between the worldwide vegetation types and several quantitative bioclimatic indexes.…”

Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties

“…Vineyards [22]. Portuguese vineyards are thus currently growing under a wide range of thermal conditions.…”

Predicting growth and habitat responses of Ginkgo biloba L. to climate change

“…Under future climatic conditions, we projected that the range of the ginkgo would shift northward and upward. Many studies support this finding, speculating that plants will move to higher altitudes and high latitudes due to global warming (Costa et al 2017;Innes 1991;Winkel et al 2015). Studies have also shown that temperate and cold temperate trees may grow faster in moderate warming conditions (Davis and Shaw 2001;Norby and Luo 2004;Peltola et al 2002;Ruiz-Labourdette et al 2015).…”