Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model

Han, Yang; Liu, Zehao; Ma, Jun

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101317

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For instance, affected by the global financial crisis, the outbreaks of pulmonary tuberculosis, syphilis, and gonorrhea in China in 2009 are closely related to the economic recession ( 21 ). Chinese economy has entered an economic recession at the business cycle frequency since about 2014 ( 66 ), and a significant decline trend can be detected in GDP series. In the context of the economic downturn, the notifiable reported IDM has shown a continuous upward trend from 2014 to 2019; with rates rising from 1.19 per 100,000 to 1.79 per 100,000.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the perspective of GDP 1 growth rate, the first high-growth period during 1991–1997 occurs after China's market reform starting from 1992 ( 65 ). Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour in 1992 has stimulated further reform and open-door policies, leading to subsequent economic booms ( 66 ). We use quarterly GDP growth rate to measure economic fluctuations.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

Sun

Tao

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

Sun

Tao

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Such problems can be well-avoided by the MF-VAR model, which does not involve any filtering procedure and can retrieve causal patterns in potentially high-frequency processes more effectively. In addition, for local alternatives, the mixed-frequency causality test has stronger asymptotic power and can capture the heterogeneous effects of high-frequency series on low-frequency variables ( 49 ). As a result, we choose the MF-VAR model to capture the effect of quarterly CPI year-over-year growth on infant mortality.…”

Section: Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infant Mortality and Inflation in China: Based on the Mixed Frequency VAR Analyses

Jiang

Liu

2022

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reducing neonatal mortality is an important goal in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic and severe global inflation, it is extremely important to explore the relationship between inflation and infant mortality. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and infant mortality using a mixed frequency vector autoregressive model (MF-VAR) without any filtering procedure, along with impulse response analysis and forecast misspecification variance decomposition, and compares it with a low frequency vector autoregressive model (LF-VAR). We find that there is a causal relationship between inflation and infant mortality, specifically, that is inflation increases infant mortality. Moreover, the contribution of CPI to IMR is greater in the forecast error variance decomposition in the MF-VAR model compared to the LF-VAR model, indicating that CPI has stronger explanatory power for IMR in mixed-frequency data. The results of the study have important implications for China and other developing countries in reducing infant mortality and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Policymakers should focus on inflation as a macroeconomic variable that reduces the potential negative impact of inflation on infant mortality. The results of the analysis further emphasize the importance of price stability in the context of global inflation caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic outbreak.

show abstract

Understanding the change of land space utilization efficiency with different functions and its coupling coordination: A case study of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Yang

Tan

et al. 2023

J. Geogr. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Land spaces function in capacities of urban development, agricultural production, and ecological conservation, among many others. Research of land space utilization efficiency (LSUE) and coupling coordination relationships among its subsystems are significant for sustainable land space development. In this study, taking the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR) as the study area, we establish a measurement index system to evaluate the LSUE (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) and analyze its coupling coordination degree by utilizing an improved coupling coordination model. The main results include the following. (1) The average efficiency levels of urban space and agricultural space in the UAMRYR increased 2000-2018, while the average efficiency of ecological space declined. (2) The spatial pattern of the LSUE values varied greatly, with the distributions of high-efficiency and low-efficiency levels significantly different. (3) The coupling degree of LSUE includes three types, i.e., high-level coupling, break-in, and antagonism. Each coupling degree type was characterized by change over time. (4) The proportion of areas with high coupling coordination and moderate coupling coordination increased from 2000 to 2018, while the proportion of areas with basic coupling coordination, moderate imbalance, and serious imbalance declined during this period. Given that the spatial differentiation of the LSUE and its coupling coordination, it is necessary to implement a differential land space development strategy in the UAMRYR. This study is helpful to promote the efficient utilization and coordinated development of land space utilization systems.

show abstract

Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model

Cited by 7 publications

References 32 publications

How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

Infant Mortality and Inflation in China: Based on the Mixed Frequency VAR Analyses

Understanding the change of land space utilization efficiency with different functions and its coupling coordination: A case study of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About