Hazardous Ice Phenomena In Rivers Of The Russian Arctic Zone Under Current Climate Conditions And The Safety Of Water Use

Abstract

The ice regime of the Russian Arctic rivers and its hazardous manifestations under current climate conditions are characterized. The ice phenomena in rivers in the region determine the conditions of navigation, water supply, hydropower station (HPS) operation, and the construction of temporary ice bridges and roads. Data of more than 100 hydrological gages over period from 1936 to 2016 were used to compile various cartographic materials and to analyze the spatial variations of the dates of ice phenomena, the duration of ice-free and ice cover periods, and the maximal ice thickness. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of level regime in periods with ice phenomena. Data on the frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run, the hazard of ice jams, and the seasonal features of the passage of maximal annual water level are generalized.The observed changes in ice regime characteristics and ice hazard are analyzed. The years of the start of statistically significant shift of the periods of ice phenomena, caused by both climate changes and anthropogenic impact, are identified. The increase in the duration of the ice-free period was found to be not greater than 3–4 days for East Siberian rivers, 5–6 days for the Middle and West Siberian rivers, and up to 10–12 days for the rivers in the European part. A decrease in the maximal ice thickness is most pronounced in the rivers of the Northern European Russia, where it is 10–15 cm. The frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run remains constant.

Ice Freeze‐Up and Break‐Up in Arctic Rivers Observed With Satellite L‐Band Passive Microwave Data From 2010 to 2020

“…The same direction of shift was also observed over other SGRs on the Kolyma River (Site ID 1757, 1758) resulting in a shorter duration of river ice cover. The tendency to later freeze‐up on the River Yenisey observed by Agafonova and Vasilenko (2020) is consistent with SMOS based results (Site ID 89) as well.…”

“…The same direction of shift was also observed over other SGRs on the Kolyma River (Site ID 1757, 1758) resulting in a shorter duration of river ice cover. The tendency to later freeze-up on the River Yenisey observed by Agafonova and Vasilenko (2020) is consistent with SMOS based results (Site ID 89) as well. Vuglinsky and Valatin (2018) Other papers by Grześ and Ćmielewski (2008) as well as Smith (2000) study apparent trends in river ice events and ice cover changes from databases gathered at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center.…”

“…In the majority of cases, the comparison shows changes consistent with findings reported in multiple scientific papers as summarized with green cells in Table 3. The analyses provided by Agafonova and Vasilenko (2020), Vuglinsky and Valatin (2018), and Cooley and Pavelsky (2016) partially overlap the time period studied in our research. In the first study, the authors used 30-year-long observations (until 2016) from hydrological gages in ) Grześ andĆmielewski (1958-1989) Grześ andĆmielewski (1958-1989) Grześ and Ćmielewski (1958-1989) Smith (1936-1989) Smith (1936-1989) Smith (1936-1989 305 Lena + + + Vuglinsky andValatin (1980-2014) 1050 Mackenzie − Grześ andĆmieleswki (1958-1978) − Cooley andPavelsky (2000-2014) + Grześ andĆmielewski (1958-1978) Grześ andĆmielewski (1958-1978) 1635…”

“…Since then, data collections as well as access to in‐situ data have been significantly restricted. Agafonova and Vasilenko (2020) provide results from Arctic river ice observations over the period between 1936 and 2016 in Russia but their source dataset is not public. River sections in the high Arctic are monitored by the Water Survey of Canada; only one of their locations (Mackenzie River at Arctic Red River ‐ Site ID 10LC014) is close to a SGR (Site ID 1050) and has observations between 2010 and 2020.…”

River ice phenology and thickness from satellite altimetry: potential for ice bridge road operation and climate studies

“…However, in the southern part of the region, the ice thickness is 0.07 to 0.20 m less than that in the north. Climate change has affected river ice in the Canadian Arctic (Prowse et al, 2011a, b) and the European part of Russia (Agafonova and Vasilenko, 2020). Mann-Kendall tests performed on the ice time series with complete records (Polnovat, Gorki and Muzhi; see Table 1) have revealed that ice onset had occurred significantly later (0.05 level) only at the Polnovat station.…”