Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

Endo, Akira; Murayama, Hiroaki; Abbott, Sam; Ratnayake, Ruwan; Pearson, Carl A. B.; Edmunds, W. John; Fearon, Elizabeth; Funk, Sebastian

doi:10.1126/science.add4507

Cited by 133 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…181 Meanwhile, using a branching process transmission model, researchers showed that a small minority of people have disproportionately large numbers of partners, which could explain the continued increase in monkeypox patients among MSM population. 182 Another research showed a transmission number of 2.43 in the MSM community among Italian cases in May-June 2022. 183 According to Endo and colleagues, 182 monkeypox’s basic reproductive number (R0) may be significantly higher than 1 over the MSM sexual contact network.…”

Section: Novel Transmission Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“… 182 Another research showed a transmission number of 2.43 in the MSM community among Italian cases in May-June 2022. 183 According to Endo and colleagues, 182 monkeypox’s basic reproductive number (R0) may be significantly higher than 1 over the MSM sexual contact network. Monkeypox virus spread model for assessing outbreak risk in a metropolitan area indicated that if transmission efficiency increases in the higher-risk group like gays and MSMs, broader populations may be affected.…”

Section: Novel Transmission Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…181 Meanwhile, using a branching process transmission model, researchers showed that a small minority of people have disproportionately large numbers of partners, which could explain the continued increase in monkeypox patients among MSM population. 182 Another research showed a transmission number of Fig. 2 Schematic illustration of the transmission and clinical characteristics of monkeypox.…”

Section: Epidemiology Of Monkeypoxmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monkeypox: epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment and prevention

Huang

Wang

2022

Sig Transduct Target Ther

159

120

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Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease that was once endemic in west and central Africa caused by monkeypox virus. However, cases recently have been confirmed in many nonendemic countries outside of Africa. WHO declared the ongoing monkeypox outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on July 23, 2022, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapidly increasing number of confirmed cases could pose a threat to the international community. Here, we review the epidemiology of monkeypox, monkeypox virus reservoirs, novel transmission patterns, mutations and mechanisms of viral infection, clinical characteristics, laboratory diagnosis and treatment measures. In addition, strategies for the prevention, such as vaccination of smallpox vaccine, is also included. Current epidemiological data indicate that high frequency of human-to-human transmission could lead to further outbreaks, especially among men who have sex with men. The development of antiviral drugs and vaccines against monkeypox virus is urgently needed, despite some therapeutic effects of currently used drugs in the clinic. We provide useful information to improve the understanding of monkeypox virus and give guidance for the government and relative agency to prevent and control the further spread of monkeypox virus.

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Section: Novel Transmission Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Novel Transmission Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…181 Meanwhile, using a branching process transmission model, researchers showed that a small minority of people have disproportionately large numbers of partners, which could explain the continued increase in monkeypox patients among MSM population. 182 Another research showed a transmission number of Fig. 2 Schematic illustration of the transmission and clinical characteristics of monkeypox.…”

Section: Epidemiology Of Monkeypoxmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monkeypox: epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment and prevention

Huang

Wang

2022

Sig Transduct Target Ther

159

120

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“… 21 , 22 , 23 Modelling studies have shown that dense sexual networks among men who have sex with men (MSM), particularly when there are multiple sexual partners could catalyse basic reproduction numbers above one despite relatively low secondary attack rates for MPX. 24 A recent analysis indicates that the effective reproduction number of the current outbreak is likely above one world-wide. 25 To date in the 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported MPX cases have been among individuals who identify as gay, bisexual, or MSM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global monkeypox case hospitalisation rates: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysis

DeWitt¹,

Polk²,

Williamson³

et al. 2022

eClinicalMedicine

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“…27 They also could result from the possibility that MPXV accumulated a few adaptive mutations in 2022. 28…”

Section: Figure 2 Transmission Routes Of Mpx In Animals and Humans (A...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology-Based Analysis of the Risks and Elimination Strategies of the Monkeypox Outbreak in 2022

Chen¹,

Chen²,

Gong³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and the elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men) and/or the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection of monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios about the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could well control but could not eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.

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Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

Cited by 133 publications

References 33 publications

Monkeypox: epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment and prevention

Monkeypox: epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment and prevention

Global monkeypox case hospitalisation rates: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysis

Epidemiology-Based Analysis of the Risks and Elimination Strategies of the Monkeypox Outbreak in 2022

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