Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species

Abstract

Climate change can cause major changes to the dynamics of individual species and to those communities in which they interact. One effect of increasing temperatures is on insect voltinism, with the logical assumption that increases in surface temperatures would permit multivoltine species to increase the number of generations per year. Though insect development is primarily driven by temperature, most multivoltine insect species rely on photoperiodic cues, which do not change from year-to-year or in response to climate warming, to initiate diapause. Thus, the relationship between climate change and voltinism could be complex. We use a phenology model for grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), which incorporates temperature-dependent development and diapause termination, and photoperiod-dependent diapause induction, to explore historical patterns in year-to-year voltinism fluctuations. We then extend this model to predict voltinism under varying scenarios of climate change to show the importance of both the quality and quantity of accumulated heat units. We also illustrate that increases in mean surface temperatures 42 1C can have dramatic effects on insect voltinism by causing a shift in the ovipositional period that currently is subject to diapause-inducing photoperiods.

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

“…Heat accumulation similarly affects development rate and, hence, the timing of appearance of adults, in many economically important insect species (Embree 1970;Kemp & Onsager 1986;Régnière et al 2007). In multi-voltine insects (those with multiple generations in a year), shortening days late in the year commonly induce diapause regardless of temperature; but the number of generations achieved prior to this will depend on temperatures experienced, and hence the rate of development, up to that point (Tobin et al 2008).…”

“…In short-lived species, warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons may allow additional generations per year (e.g. Tobin et al 2008;Jö nsson et al 2009;Altermatt 2010). Both of these possibilities have major implications for population growth.…”

Olfaction in vector-host interactions

“…However, alterations to temperature may create favourable conditions that allow additional generations within a given year. Tobin et al (2008) investigated such effects using a phenology model of the grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens). It was designed to incorporate temperaturedependent development and diapause termination, as well as photoperiod-dependent diapause induction.…”

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

“…Such approaches have been developed for important insect pest species, such as Ips typographus (L.) (Wermelinger and Seifert, 1998;Netherer and Pennerstorfer, 2001;Netherer and Nopp-Mayr, 2005;Baier et al, 2007: PHENIPS;Jönsson et al, 2007Jönsson et al, , 2009 and Lymantria dispar (L.) (Logan and Bentz, 1999;Gray, 2004;Powell and Logan, 2005;Pitt et al, 2007). Incorporating species-specific diapause regulation into such models was found crucial for predicting the response to driving climate variables (Gray et al, 2001;Steinbauer et al, 2004;Dolezal and Sehnal, 2007;Tobin et al, 2008). However, since detailed experimental knowledge on the phenology of many insect species is lacking, frameworks for the explorative analysis of weather impact on insect life cycle stages over space and time were proposed to facilitate phenological modelling (Jarvis, 2001).…”