How does climate change cause extinction?

Cahill, Abigail; Aiello‐Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher‐Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.1890

Cited by 741 publications

(663 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…However, conservation actions focused on biotic interactions may fail unless environmental conditions are suitable; thus, it is important to understand when and where a species range is principally controlled by competition or environmental gradients (Urban, Tewksbury, & Sheldon, 2012). Future extinction risk may result from different climate sensitivities, not from biotic interactions, although these factors are seldom considered simultaneously in a single analysis (Cahill et al., 2013). Using a modeling framework that directly accounts for the presence of the red‐backed salamander and accommodates heterogeneity in detecting either species, we find that climate, not competition, is a chief determinant of the lower elevational range limit of the endemic P. shenandoah salamander.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

Grant¹,

Brand²,

Wekker

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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A frequent assumption in ecology is that biotic interactions are more important than abiotic factors in determining lower elevational range limits (i.e., the “warm edge” of a species distribution). However, for species with narrow environmental tolerances, theory suggests the presence of a strong environmental gradient can lead to persistence, even in the presence of competition. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors is rarely considered together, although understanding when one exerts a dominant influence on controlling range limits may be crucial to predicting extinction risk under future climate conditions. We sampled multiple transects spanning the elevational range limit of Plethodon shenandoah and site and climate covariates were recorded. A two‐species conditional occupancy model, accommodating heterogeneity in detection probability, was used to relate variation in occupancy with environmental and habitat conditions. Regional climate data were combined with datalogger observations to estimate the cloud base heights and to project future climate change impacts on cloud elevations across the survey area. By simultaneously accounting for species’ interactions and habitat variables, we find that elevation, not competition, is strongly correlated with the lower elevation range boundary, which had been presumed to be restricted mainly as a result of competitive interactions with a congener. Because the lower elevational range limit is sensitive to climate variables, projected climate change across its high‐elevation habitats will directly affect the species’ distribution. Testing assumptions of factors that set species range limits should use models which accommodate detection biases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

Grant¹,

Brand²,

Wekker

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…A recent systematic review of the causes of contemporary climate change-related extinctions revealed that changes in species interactions are an important cause of population decline (Cahill et al 2013). Many species of plants rely heavily on other species for a number of essential services, such as pollination, seed dispersal, and nutrient provision.…”

Section: Co-migration Of Dependenciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

2015

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Contemporary climate change is having widespread impacts on plant populations. Understanding how plants respond to this change is essential to our efforts to conserve them. The key climate responses of plant populations can be categorised into one of three types: migration, in situ adaptation, or extirpation. If populations are to avoid extirpation then migration and/or in situ adaptation is essential. In this review we first articulate the current and future constraints of plant populations, but trees in particular, to the different adaptation strategies (e.g. space availability, rate of change, habitat fragmentation, niche availability). Secondly, we assess the use of the most appropriate methods (e.g. natural environmental gradients, genome and transcriptome scans) for assessing and understanding adaptive responses and the capacity to adapt to future challenges. Thirdly, we discuss the best conservation approaches (e.g. assisted migration, biodiversity corridors, ex situ strategies) to help overcome adaptive constraints in plants. Our synthesis of plant, and particularly tree, responses and constraints to climate change adaptation, combined with the identification of conservation strategies designed to overcome constraints, will help deliver effective management actions to assist adaptation in the face of current and future climate change.

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“…Recent evidence has highlighted that climate change will directly drive population change and extinction primarily through altered species interactions [12,16]. However, the precise climatic drivers underpinning such relationships remain unclear and may differ between leading and trailing range margins [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

et al. 2015

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Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

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How does climate change cause extinction?

Cited by 741 publications

References 94 publications

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

Evidence that climate sets the lower elevation range limit in a high‐elevation endemic salamander

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

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