How Does the Trend in Thunder Days Relate to the Variation of Lightning Flash Density?

Abstract

A longstanding question for scientists has been whether or not any observable trends or shifts in global lightning activity have occurred since the Industrial Revolution. This study utilized over 8,000 certified ground‐based stations over a 43‐year period, as well as 16 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data, to provide a better understanding of the processes behind these trends. Ground station results show that many global regions have observed significant increases or decreases in thunder day occurrence. The Amazon, Maritime Continent, India, Congo, Central America, and Argentina display increases in annual thunder days since the 1970s, whereas China, Australia, and the Sahel among others observe decreases in the number of thunder days. The corresponding change in lightning flash density from the TRMM‐LIS, as well as the number of thunderstorm features and lightning flashes per thunderstorm feature, is compared to the thunder day trends during the TRMM lifespan. Results show a positive correlation between the changes of thunder day occurrence and flash density over most regions of the TRMM domain, including the Maritime Continent, China, South Africa, and Argentina. However, there are several regions with disagreements between the flash density and thunder day trends, such as India and Western Africa. The disagreements are related to the changes in the number of flashes per thunderstorm, which suggest other reasons to interpret the long term trends in thunder day occurrence over various regions. Understanding these regional trends in lightning activity is important in understanding the changes of precipitation systems under a varying climate.

Three Years of the Lightning Imaging Sensor Onboard the International Space Station: Expanded Global Coverage and Enhanced Applications

“…As part of this, ISS LIS observations will be used as part of a proposed 10 × 10 km 2 , global product that blends both space-and ground-based lightning observations into daily and monthly timescales (Aich et al, 2018). Additionally, these data extend the OTD and TRMM LIS period of record for use in understanding trends in global thunder days (Lavigne et al, 2019). This supports continuing work to identify significant shifts in global lightning activity (e.g., Williams, 2020).…”

Significantly Increased Lightning Activity Over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relation to Thunderstorm Genesis

“…In addition, the different definitions of thunderstorm frequency and thunderstorm days may also lead to different conclusions. For example, Lavigne et al (2019) revealed that the thunderstorm days increased while the PFs containing lightning flashes decreased during the same period over southern North America. Longer time accumulation of ground-based and space-based lightning data are necessary to better examine the long-term trend of lightning activity from observational data and help to improve the projection of future lightning changes, so as to better understand lightning hazards and the effects of lightning on ecosystems and atmospheric chemistry under carbon emission scenarios in global scale or regional scale.…”

“…Global lightning may experience a significant increase in a warming climate (Price & Rind, 1994; Reeve & Toumi, 1999; Williams, 2005). However, recent studies showed that lightning activity or thunder day decreased over the southeast North America, central South America, the Sahel, and eastern Australia (Lavigne et al., 2019; Qie et al., 2020), and increased over the Arctic, the South Asia, and the Amazon (Chandra et al., 2022; Chen et al., 2021; Holzworth et al., 2021; Qie et al., 2021; Saha et al., 2017). Romps et al.…”

Thunderstorm Climatologies and Their Relationships to Total and Extreme Precipitation in China

“…Nevertheless, the decreasing trend of severe weather is somewhat opposite to the trend of extreme (hourly) precipitation events, which have increased significantly in the central and southern China (Deng et al., 2017; Xiao et al., 2016). While extreme precipitation is more linked to the increase of air temperature (Xiao et al., 2016), unique regional thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms could influence trends in thunderstorm frequency (Lavigne et al., 2019).…”