How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa?

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam; Bell, V. A.; Davies, Helen; Kay, Alison L.

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03256-0

Cited by 31 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(67 reference statements)

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“…A direct comparison of our results to previous studies in the region is restricted by the differences in the choice of RCM-GCM models, RCPs, future projections periods, and the baseline period, which alone might lead to different outcomes (Liersch et al, 2020). However, our results generally corroborate with comparable previous studies in the region (Aich et al, 2016;Roudier et al, 2014;Sidibe et al, 2020;Rameshwaran et al, 2021). It is noteworthy that total runoff is projected to increase, while rainfall decreases under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 during the period 2021-2050.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming

Dembélé

Vrac

Ceperley

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The bias-corrected climate projections are then used as input to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the 21st century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water–energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming

Dembélé

Vrac

Ceperley

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…As a results of climate change, several climate models predict increase in flood occurrences in Nigeria e.g. [53]- [54]- [50]- [55]. As highlighted by Kundzewicz et al [2] changes in precipitation and temperature regimes as a result of changing climate are responsible flood occurrences.…”

Section: How Climate Change Exacerbate Flood In Nigeria?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historically, West Africa (including Nigeria) has been subject to extreme climate variability and severe weather events, such as floods, that can be attributed to climate change [50]. Climate change is believed to exacerbate floods across Nigeria by increasing rainfall intensity and duration [51].…”

Section: How Climate Change Exacerbate Flood In Nigeria?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Policy and Governance: A Pathway for Policy Coherence in Nigeria

Danhassan¹,

Ahmed²,

Zangina³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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In recent years, Nigeria is witnessing increasing frequency of flood occurrence with devastating impact translating into significant loss of lives (in Nigeria, over 300 people died in September 2022) and properties. Addressing flood disaster requires holistic approach from policy and governance perspectives, integration of policies and programs and synergies between institutions. Using synergies and eliminating trade-offs, flood governance and policy coherence integrate all relevant policy fields and institutions to achieve common policy outcomes. The objective of this study is to examine and understand how flood governance and policy coherence are approached, as well as institutional design and implementation for coherence in Nigeria. The findings revealed that there is no single flood policy in Nigeria. Due to this, there is no focus and no defined objectives for flood governance, prevention, control, and management, and no imperative for the government to seek both short-term and long-term flood solutions. There is no synergy and coordination among institutions for flood governance in the country. Since the country established the federal ministry of environment in 1999, the environment, floods, and climate-related hazards were given less priority. State and local governments handle most flood disasters and emergencies. Federal assistance is provided, however, when flood disasters exceed the capabilities of local and state governments. This study recommends that across the country, flood policy needs to be designed, formulated, and implemented while assigning governance responsibility and decentralizing policy to state and local governments.

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“…Several studies have agreed that climate change will affect both the quality and quantity of available water resources in the SSA region [93,94]. According to the IPCC's climate projection models, the African dry tropics are projected to experience a decline in rainfall in the 21st century, ultimately affecting water availability and river runoff [95].…”

Section: Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Sub-Saharan Africa Freshwater Fisheries under Climate Change: A Review of Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Measures

Muringai

Mafongoya

Lottering

2022

Fishes

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s freshwater fisheries contribute significantly to the livelihoods and food security of millions of people within the region. However, freshwater fisheries are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors such as overfishing, illegal fishing, pollution, and climate change. There is a substantial body of literature on the effects of climate change on freshwater fisheries in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study reviews the existing literature and highlights the effects of climate change on freshwater fisheries, the adaptation strategies of fishery-dependent households in response to the effects, and fisheries’ management and mitigation efforts in the face of climate change. The general effects of climate change on freshwater environments include warming water temperatures, increased stratification, modified hydrological processes, and increased pollutants. These effects adversely affect the physiological processes of fish and the overall wellbeing of fishery-dependent people. To cope with the effects of fluctuating fishery resources due to climate change, fishery-dependent people have adopted several adaptation strategies including livelihood diversification, changing their fishing gear, increasing their fishing efforts, and targeting new species. Several management attempts have been made to enhance the sustainability of fishery resources, from local to regional levels. This study recommends the participation of the resource users in the formulation of policies aimed at promoting climate change adaptation and the resilience of freshwater fisheries for sustainable development.

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How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa?

Cited by 31 publications

References 84 publications

Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming

Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming

Flood Policy and Governance: A Pathway for Policy Coherence in Nigeria

Sub-Saharan Africa Freshwater Fisheries under Climate Change: A Review of Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Measures

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