How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Postma, T.J.B.M.; Liebl, Franz

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.005

Cited by 84 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In reality, each scenario exercise is a mixture of different modes and practice is shaped by the image(s) of the future and the techniques applied. Combinations of techniques are possible and found in our case studies and in literature (see for instance Postma &Liebl, 2005 andSaritas &Aylen, 2010). However to strengthen the enablers for innovation, the link between practice and theory, represented via the modes of futures thinking should be acknowledged when designing and implementing future scenario exercises.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Smedt

Borch

Fuller

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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In recent years and accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy making. These grand challenges require policy makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of innovative solutions. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analysing several scenario cases, elements of good practice and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. Highlights-Grand challenges bringing the social dimension of innovation in the picture -Investigating the role for futures thinking and scenarios to inspire innovation -Future scenarios as a tool for orienting innovation systems

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Smedt

Borch

Fuller

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…Similar to the Storyline and Simulation (SAS) approach (Alcamo, 2001), the axes and logics then provide input into the selection and checking of numerical estimates of driving force change in the IDA model. The scenarios are checked and integrated by applying two important principles of scenario construction; plausibility of change (Nakicenovic et al, 2000) and internal consistency within the scenarios (Postma and Liebl, 2005). The scenarios can then be amended where necessary as in the SAS approach.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

O’Mahony¹,

Zhou

Sweeney

2013

Ecological Economics

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“…The method uses the partial differential equations which govern both the firm's expected profit and the values of regulatory interest. It therefore contrasts with scenario analysis (Postma and Liebl, 2005) by considering all possible future scenarios, and is exact in that it does not require simulations.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal regulatory control of early contract termination

Evatt¹,

Johnson²,

Duck³

2013

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics

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We present a quantitative method to find jointly optimal strategies for an industry regulator and a firm, who operate under exogenous uncertainty. The firm controls its operating policy in order to maximize its expected future profits, whilst taking account of regulatory fines. The regulator aims to control the probability of the firm terminating production, by imposing a closure fine which is as low as possible, while achieving the required reduction in probability. Our method determines the level of fine which establishes a Nash equilibrium in these nonzero-sum games, under uncertainty.

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How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Cited by 84 publications

References 21 publications

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

Optimal regulatory control of early contract termination

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