How to secure external sustainability of the russian economy

Gurvich, E.; Prilepskiy, Ilya

doi:10.32609/0042-8736-2013-9-4-39

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In countries with high export potential, where there is a positive trade balance, the post-devaluation accumulation of reserves occurs rather quickly due to a reduction in imports of goods and services. With a low level of export-import elasticity (Gurvich, 2013) typical for the Russian economy, the positive effect of devaluation is limited to the raw materials sector, which advantages over the non-resource economy, which is shocked by rising import prices and reduced investment.…”

Section: Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia

Gasanov

2021

IJFR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The article provides a review of approaches to assessing and analyzing the effectiveness of the interest rate and exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia in the period 2015-2019. Despite the decrease in the rate of price growth, inflationary expectations of economic agents remain at a high level. Monetary policy continues to be tight. The stability of the exchange rate to external shocks, expected from the introduction of inflation targeting and a free floating rate, did not happen. The complex of conditions that have developed due to geopolitical factors, low growth rates and the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic require the search for new targets, such as economic growth and exchange rate stability. To maintain the stability of the ruble exchange rate, it is recommended to sell foreign exchange reserves accumulated according to the "Budget rule" in an equivalent amount; to support the liquidity of banks during periods of an attack on the ruble, it should through foreign exchange REPO, and develop a derivatives market.

show abstract

Section: Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia

Gasanov

2021

IJFR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…where: g B is a country's GDP growth rate, consistent with the long-term equilibrium of the balance of payments; e is the income elasticity of the demand for exports; z is the income growth rate in foreign countries; x is the growth rate of exports; π is the domestic income elasticity of demand for imports. A detailed theo retical and formal justification of Thirlwall's Law in its canonic form (without isolating the sectoral aspect) is given in Thirlwall (1979Thirlwall ( , 2011 and in Gurvich and Prilepskiy (2013). Soukiazis and Cerqueira (2012) aggregate the research conducted based on Thirlwall's Law, as well as numerous expansions of the basic model by including capital flows, interest payments on debt, and trends in trade terms and trade partners.…”

Section: Approaches To Identifying the Sectors That Drive Economic Grmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia

Mironov¹,

Konovalova²

2019

RUJEC

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The article considers the problem of the relationship of structural changes and economic growth in the global economy and Russia in the framework of different methodological approaches. At the same time, the paper provides the analysis of complementarity of economic policy types, which, on the one hand, are aimed at developing the fundamentals of GDP growth (institutions, human capital and macroeconomic stabilization), and on the other hand, at initiating growth (with stable fundamentals) with the help of structural policy measures. In the study of structural changes in the global economy, new forms of policies of this kind have been revealed, in particular aimed at identifying sectors — drivers of economic growth based on a portfolio approach. In a given paper a preliminary version of the model of the Russian economy is provided, using a multisector version of the Thirlwall’s Law. Besides, the authors highlight a number of target parameters of indicators of competitiveness of the sectors of the Russian economy that allow us to expect its growth rate to accelerate above the exogenously given growth rate of the world economy.

show abstract

“…This is barely one-third of the projected growth rates for the world economy (3.7% on average) and is even lower than for developed countries (1.9%), although, all things being equal, the Russian economy should be growing noticeably faster, like one with a lower per capita income. The long-run average growth rate for our economy is estimated at approximately 2% (Gurvich and Prilepskiy, 2013).…”

Section: Introduction: Formulating the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional constraints and economic development

Gurvich¹

2016

Russian Journal of Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article is an attempt to find a grounded answer to the question of why many large-scale economic development programs worked out in Russia from 2000 through 2010 have failed to yield the expected results. To this end, the author has diagnosed the Russian economy, including a comparative analysis against 20 countries at similar levels of development and analyzed both the Russian and global experience in developing and implementing economic programs. The author concludes that the development of the Russian economy is currently hindered by a rigid institutional framework and that growth cannot accelerate without removing it as part of the political process. Based on the analysis of various types of institutional reforms, specific measures are proposed that can ensure the country's evolutional development and can mitigate the economic and social risks threatening Russia if the status quo is maintained.

show abstract

How to secure external sustainability of the russian economy

Cited by 14 publications

References 2 publications

Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia

Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed? The Case of Russia

Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia

Institutional constraints and economic development

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About