How Unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary Reconstructions of Extreme Flooding from New York Harbor

Brandon, Christine M.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Sullivan, Richard M.

doi:10.1038/srep07366

Cited by 76 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Our model result for the storm tide, however, is only 2.66 m. One possible explanation for this is inaccurate wind speed estimates; a prior recent study using SLOSH found a higher wind speed is needed, relative to the Boose et al . [] study estimate of 51.4 m s −1 at landfall, to fit a presumed (inaccurate by +0.2 m) storm surge of 3.6 m, and the best fit came when maximum sustained wind speeds of 58 m s −1 [ Brandon et al ., ]. These results suggest that the Boose et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One widely cited [ Brandon et al ., ; Coch , ; Redfield , ; Scileppi and Donnelly , ] and impressive factor with the 1821 storm tide in NYH was that the water rose 13 feet in 1 h, based on a newspaper quote. The New Bedford Mercury quote read “In one hour during the [hurricane] of Monday evening, the water was forced into the East River 13 feet 4 inches [4.0 m] above low water mark.” [ Boose et al ., ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent study of lagoonal sediment cores at New York City's Staten Island showed that the 1788 event had a much thinner and finer sand layer than the 1821 event [ Brandon et al ., ]. This same observation was made by Scileppi and Donnelly [], and they surmised that the smaller storm size explained the less prominent and sometimes missing sand overwash layer on Long Island.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor

Orton

Hall

Talke

et al. 2016

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

103

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Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present‐day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical‐stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category‐3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor

Orton

Hall

Talke

et al. 2016

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

103

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“…When Sandy made landfall in southern New Jersey, it had maximum winds of only ∼70 knots (kts), but was a very large [tropical storm force winds extending about 870 nautical miles (4)] and slow-moving storm, capable of producing storm surge for an extended period in NYC (31). The hazard posed by storms of this type is amplified, because their long-duration storm surges have an increased likelihood of overlapping with a high astronomical tide to produce correspondingly larger flood heights.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Reed

Mann

Emanuel

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. T ropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated storm surges are the costliest natural hazards to impact the U.S. Atlantic coast (1-3). For example, Hurricane Sandy caused an estimated $50 billion of damage and destroyed at least 650,000 houses in 2012, largely because of flooding from a 3-to 4-m storm surge and large waves (4). A storm surge is the anomalous rise of water above predicted astronomical tides, and its height is driven primarily by wind patterns, storm track, and coastal geomorphology forcing water onshore, with a smaller contribution from reduced atmospheric pressure allowing the ocean surface to rise. The financial cost and human impact of future storm surges will be controlled by the TC climate (frequency, intensity, size, duration, and location) and the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR), which is the base water level upon which storm surges occur (5, 6). The flood height attained during a given storm is determined by combining storm surge, tides, and relative sea level. Therefore, as sea level rises through time, coastal inundation risk from storm surges rises as well. Thus, it is useful to conduct a longterm analysis of the impact of changing TC climates and RSLR on flood heights (7).The observational record of TCs in the North Atlantic Ocean basin spans A.D. 1851 to the present, but is too short (8) and potentially unreliable (9) to accurately assess long-term trends in TC frequency, intensity, and storm surge height, particularly for the largest events and for locations that rarely experience land...

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“…Coastal geological archives have provided evidence of hurricane landfall (e.g., van de Plassche et al, 2006;Brandon et al, 2014), as well as European storm surges (e.g., Tsompanoglou et al, 2010;Bateman et al, 2018). However, use of the geological archive in geohazard assessment requires understanding of how such events are preserved in coastal environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sedimentary records of coastal storm surges: Evidence of the 1953 North Sea event

et al. 2018

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The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T The expression of storm events in the geological record is poorly understood; therefore, stratigraphic investigations of known events are needed. The 1953 North Sea storm surge was the largest natural disaster for countries bordering the southern North Sea during the twentieth century. We characterize the spatial distribution of a sand deposit from the 1953 storm surge in a salt marsh at Holkham, Norfolk (UK). Radionuclide measurements, core scanning x-ray fluorescence (Itrax), and particle size analyses, were used to date and characterise the deposit. The deposit occurs at the onset of detectable 137 Cs -coeval with the first testing of nuclear weapons in the early 1950s. The sand layer is derived from material eroded from beach and dunes on the seaward side of the salt marsh. After the depositional event, accumulation of finer-grained silt and clay materials resumed. This work has important implications for understanding the responses of salt marshes to powerful storms and provides a near-modern analogue of storm surge events for calibration of extreme wave events in the geological record.

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How Unique was Hurricane Sandy? Sedimentary Reconstructions of Extreme Flooding from New York Harbor

Cited by 76 publications

References 37 publications

A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor

A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Sedimentary records of coastal storm surges: Evidence of the 1953 North Sea event

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