Human Influence on the Climate System

Nica, A.; Popescu, Adina; Ibanescu, Daniela-Cristina

doi:10.1017/9781009157896.005

Cited by 81 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 789 publications

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“…This means that we are not able to isolate the influence of natural radiative forcings (e.g., volcanic eruptions). However, temperature and precipitation extremes were attributed to anthropogenic forcing in the light of strong evidence (e.g., Eyring et al, 2021;Kim et al, 2015;Min et al, 2011). Stott et al (2010), Sarojini et al (2016), andAlexander (2016) highlight the limited confidence in regional attribution assessments due to the large effect of internal variability resulting from low-frequency variations in atmospheric circulation as well as due to a limited sample size of rare climate extreme events.…”

Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, significant advances have been made in refining our understanding of human-induced climate change (IPCC, 2021) and climate change detection and attribution techniques have played a central role in this effort (Eyring et al, 2021). Detection and Attribution techniques are built to test the hypothesis that changes in the climate system are not consistent with internal climate variability and to check if an emerging signal is consistent with changes in the radiative forcing (e.g., due to greenhouse gas emissions).…”

Section: Detection Attribution and Process Understandingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While certain dynamic patterns can lead to an increased probability of concurrent extremes in food regions (e.g., Kornhuber et al, 2020), human-induced climate change can further amplify the resulting temperature extremes through thermodynamic processes (Wehrli et al, 2020). When assessing the contribution of humaninduced global warming to the changing likelihoods of climate extreme events, heat extremes have been the main subject of attribution research in recent decades (e.g., Eyring et al, 2021;Seneviratne et al, 2021). This is in part the case because the signal-to-noise ratio of changes in heat extremes is particularly strong compared to trends in some other extreme events (Seneviratne et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Biess,

Gudmundsson,

Seneviratne

2024

Earth's Future

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Recent years were characterized by spatially co‐occurring hot and wet extremes around the globe, raising questions about the contribution of human‐induced global warming to the changing likelihoods of such extreme years. To characterize spatially co‐occurring extremes we investigate recent trends in global and regional land area that is concurrently affected by hot or wet annual maxima taking observational uncertainty into account. Observed trends in the land area affected by extreme events are assessed in the context of Earth System Model (ESM) simulations for present‐day and early‐industrial climate conditions in a detection and attribution setting. We compare different reanalysis and station‐based observational products to account for observational data uncertainty. At the global scale, trends of spatially co‐occurring hot or wet annual maxima in all observational products can be explained by ESM simulations driven by historical radiative forcing that accounts for human‐induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere but cannot be explained by ESM simulations that account for an early‐industrial radiative forcing. At the regional scale, trends in spatially co‐occurring hot annual maxima are in general coherent among observational products and can in most cases be attributed to human influence on the climate system. Trends in spatially co‐occurring wet annual maxima show differences in some regions, highlighting the importance of a multi‐dataset approach to overcome observational product dependencies. Despite observational uncertainty, we find robust detection and attribution results for many regions. These results can complement previous assessments on regional exposure to hot and wet events from the new IPCC AR6 report.

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Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Detection Attribution and Process Understandingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Biess,

Gudmundsson,

Seneviratne

2024

Earth's Future

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“…[ 75 ]), but we cannot tell the likelihood of collapse under global warming ([ 76 ], AR6 Chapter 9 [ 73 ]). The AMOC has been observed comprehensively at 26.5° N since 2004, but we cannot tell whether the observed change is due to natural variability or anthropogenic change (AR6 Chapter 3 [ 77 ]); there is low confidence in longer-term proxy-derived AMOC change (AR6 Chapters 9 and 2 [ 73 , 78 ]). Magnitude and mechanisms of AMOC internal variability are all over the place in climate models (e.g.…”

Section: …And Where Rapid Tried But Has Not Delivered Yetmentioning

confidence: 99%

From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery

Marotzke

2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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I review the history of ideas that have led to the establishment of the RAPID monitoring system for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5° N. This history is closely connected to important events in my personal career. Starting from early and largely unsuccessful attempts at formulating a dynamically consistent force balance for the AMOC, I made theoretical progress by separately predicting the density at the eastern and western boundaries and by invoking exact geostrophic balance throughout, including the western boundary current. A remarkable confluence of individuals and ideas then enabled the establishment of the RAPID array, at its core based on monitoring boundary densities and on geostrophy. The RAPID results, such as the surprisingly large sub-seasonal variability, have encouraged AMOC monitoring approaches at other latitudes. I finish by pointing at two theoretical concepts—first, acknowledging the difference between convective mixing and sinking and, second, considering the advective rather than wave propagation of density perturbations in the deep western boundary current—that, together with continued observations and newly available global coupled simulations at very high resolution, should substantially improve our understanding of the causes of AMOC variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

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“…East coast lows are also particularly important in SEVic (Pepler et al 2014(Pepler et al , 2021, and it is as yet unclear how these will change in future. Given that each region's rainfall has different influences, and it is known that the influence of climate change varies spatially (e.g., Eyring et al 2021). So, here we determine the extent to which forced changes vary from one sub-region to another.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia

Rauniyar

Power

2023

Climatic Change

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We examine rainfall variability and change in three sub-regions of the state of Victoria in Australia: the Murray Basin Victoria (MBVic), southeast Victoria (SEVic), and southwest Victoria (SWVic). These sub-regions represent three different hydrological super-catchments over Victoria and received average cool season rainfall for the 1997–2018 period, about 15%, 11%, and 8% less, respectively, than the 1900–1959 average. All three observed declines are shown to be very unusual in terms of historical variability. On analysing CMIP5 models under different forcing conditions (preindustrial, historical-all, historical-GHGs-only, historical-natural-only, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), we estimate that external forcing caused 30% of the observed drying in SWVic, 18% in MBVic, and 17% in SEVic. The external forcing contributions to the observed trend for the 1900–2018 period are estimated to be 56%, 17%, and 24% for SWVic, MBVic, and SEVic, respectively. Taken at face value, these figures suggest that only the 1900–2018 trend in SWVic was dominated by external forcing. Nearly all models underestimate the magnitude of the observed drying. This arises because models underestimate the magnitude of decadal variability, and because models might also underestimate externally forced drying, and/or the contribution of internal variability in the real world to the observed event was unusually large. By 2037, approximately 90% of the models simulate drying in SWVic, even under a low emissions scenario. Under a high emission scenario, the anthropogenically forced drying towards the late twenty-first century is so large in all three sub-regions that internal variability appears too small to offset it.

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Human Influence on the Climate System

Cited by 81 publications

References 789 publications

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery

Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia

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