Hurricane evacuations in the face of uncertainty: Use of integrated models to support robust, adaptive, and repeated decision-making

Yang, Kun; Davidson, Rachel A.; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian A.; Dresback, Kendra M.; Kolar, Randall L.; Nozick, Linda K.; Trivedi, Jennifer; Wachtendorf, Tricia

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101093

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…De plus, les situations d'incertitude sont caractérisées par des prises de décision itératives, « une série de rendez-vous » plutôt qu'une décision unique, une fois pour toute, comme Callon et al l'ont montré (2001). C'est bien l'idée aussi de la planification « répétée » (Yang et al, 2019). Des temporalités diverses se juxtaposent, comme nous l'avons montré dans nos deux études de cas.…”

Section: Echogéo 51 | 2020unclassified

“…Les interactions entre les composantes « perception de la situation -COP -processus de décision » lors d'événements réels de faible probabilité et de forte intensité sont rarement investiguées (Donahue et Tuohy, 2006), ou alors au travers d'approches génériques ou théoriques (Heikkilä et al, 2015 ;Rosqvist et al, 2017). Yang et al (2019) distingue trois approches de planification pour la prise de décisions en matière d'évacuation lors d'ouragans, en fonction de la façon dont elles tiennent compte de l'incertitude. Une planification « robuste » tient compte explicitement de l'incertitude et vise un plan qui est souhaitable pour de nombreux scénarios, sinon tous.…”

unclassified

See 1 more Smart Citation

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

November¹,

Azémar²,

Lecacheux³

et al. 2020

echogeo

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Echogéo 51 | 2020unclassified

unclassified

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

November¹,

Azémar²,

Lecacheux³

et al. 2020

echogeo

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In [17], the authors discuss the use of formal modeling to support robust, adaptive, and repeatable decision-making during an impending hurricane. It also details a case study of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in North Carolina, using an integrated scenario-based evacuation computational framework that allows for comparing the effects of including the three features of the evacuation in the modeling.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evacuation Supporting System Based on IoT Components †

Eggly

Finochietto

Micheletto

et al. 2019

13th International Conference on Ubiquitous Computing and Ambient ‪Intelligence UCAmI 2019‬

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The response to natural disasters usually requires evacuation procedures that should be followed in a quick and orderly fashion. While census data provide information on the population distribution during sleeping hours, the evacuation procedure may arrive at any moment of the day, even when people are not at home; e.g., in their daily activities. This particular situation causes preparedness plans based on census information to become minimally effective; therefore, more dynamic and context-aware strategies are required to properly address these evacuation processes. In this paper, an evacuation supporting system, based on IoT-networked devices, is proposed to guide people to safe places or shelters once the alert of an extreme event has been issued. The system is interactive and support crowd-sensing; this allows people to upload information on the state of the routes and the shelters, thus keep an updated status of the evacuation routes. The contribution of the paper is twofold. On one side, an evolutionary algorithm is proposed to provide coverage in a breadcrumb deployment of information posts called witness units. On the other, an application based on geographical information system is presented as an intermediary between the witness units and the users; this application guides people towards safe places or shelters.

show abstract

“…In simulating evacuation behaviour, agent-based models (ABM) have proved to be highly suitable, enabling researchers to capture the interactions of diverse agents and to simulate dynamic responses in spatial environment over time (Chen, Meaker, & Zhan, 2006;Dawson, Peppe, & Wang, 2011). More recent work on hurricane-driven evacuations has seen an increase in the geographical scale of models and the application of integrated approaches, advancing the state of the art in ABM (Davidson, Nozick, Wachtendorf et al, 2020;Morss, Demuth, Lazrus et al, 2017;Watts, Morss, Barton et al, 2019;Yang, Davidson, Blanton et al, 2019). Yang et al (2019) simulated different scenarios of hurricane development and its impact on decision-making.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recent work on hurricane-driven evacuations has seen an increase in the geographical scale of models and the application of integrated approaches, advancing the state of the art in ABM (Davidson, Nozick, Wachtendorf et al, 2020;Morss, Demuth, Lazrus et al, 2017;Watts, Morss, Barton et al, 2019;Yang, Davidson, Blanton et al, 2019). Yang et al (2019) simulated different scenarios of hurricane development and its impact on decision-making. The challenges of using ABM, however, include the simulation of human agents with potentially inappropriate behaviour and decision-making under the circumstances; in such cases, choices are affected by complex psychology (Bonabeau, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating emergencies with transport outcomes Sim (SETOSim): Application of an agent-based decision support tool to community evacuation planning

Nakanishi

Wise

Suenaga

et al. 2020

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the time since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, an increasing number of studies have focused on developing agent-based simulations of citizen evacuation behaviours. The application of simulation to practice (i.e. evacuation planning, community disaster risk reduction strategy), however, is limited. This research aims to explore the effective application of agent-based evacuation simulation to better inform community evacuation planning through a collaborative process. The study developed an evacuation modelling tool focusing on the storm surge and flood evacuation behaviours of residents living in Takamatsu, Japan. The city of Takamatsu borders the Seto Inland Sea, an area where the risks from waterrelated disasters are increasing. The tidal flow of the Seto Inland Sea and storm surge flooding are simulated based on data from the 2004 typhoons, which seriously flooded the study area. An agent-based model exploring the relative vulnerability of residents as a function of location, demographic attributes including age, and previous experience is developed based on a questionnaire survey of residents which gathered information on their stated preference of evacuation. A visualisation of the simulation was shared with residents through workshops held in five neighbourhoods. It was also shared with government officials. The feedback from residents and governments officials on the effective applications to community evacuation planning are discussed and plans for future research are outlined.

show abstract

Hurricane evacuations in the face of uncertainty: Use of integrated models to support robust, adaptive, and repeated decision-making

Cited by 20 publications

References 24 publications

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

Le couple anticipation/décision aux prises avec l’exceptionnel, l’imprévu et l’incertitude

Evacuation Supporting System Based on IoT Components †

Simulating emergencies with transport outcomes Sim (SETOSim): Application of an agent-based decision support tool to community evacuation planning

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About