Simulating emergencies with transport outcomes Sim (SETOSim): Application of an agent-based decision support tool to community evacuation planning

Nakanishi, Hitomi; Wise, Sarah; Suenaga, Yoshihiro; Manley, Ed

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101657

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Only 5 of the 53 papers were accompanied by source code (Aguilar et al 2017 ; Nakanishi et al 2020 ; Naqvi 2017 ; Slucki and Nielek 2015 ; Wijerathne et al 2013 ) and only one pseudocode (Poulos et al 2018 ) was found. This means that approximately 90% of the models are virtually impossible to replicate and the published results cannot therefore be at least quantitatively verified.…”

Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

et al. 2022

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This systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of tsunami evacuation models. The review covers scientific studies from the last decade (2012–2021) and is explicitly focused on models using an agent-based approach. The PRISMA methodology was used to analyze 171 selected papers, resulting in over 53 studies included in the detailed full-text analysis. This review is divided into two main parts: (1) a descriptive analysis of the presented models (focused on the modeling tools, validation, and software platform used, etc.), and (2) model analysis (e.g., model purpose, types of agents, input and output data, and modeled area). Special attention was given to the features of these models specifically associated with an agent-based approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the research domain of agent-based tsunami evacuation models is quite narrow and specialized, with a high degree of variability in the model attributes and properties. At the same time, the application of agent-specific methodologies, protocols, organizational paradigms, or standards is sparse. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05643-x.

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Section: Technical Properties Of Abm Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

et al. 2022

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“…The definition of tools able to assist a community in making local decisions during an evacuation reveals essential in order to improve the emergency planning. The relationship between users' behavior during an evacuation and individual perceptions of risk has a certain scientific rationality, and agent-based models taking into account alternative evacuation plans based on the understanding of residents' movements according to changes of environment, [49], as well as analyzing the effect of disaster risk perception on various emergency behaviors related to one's own perceived vulnerability, [50], have been proposed.…”

Section: A State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Evacuation Risk Using a Stochastic Process Formulation of Mesoscopic Dynamic Network Loading

Gangi¹,

Watling²,

Salvo³

2022

IEEE Trans. Intell. Transport. Syst.

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One of the actions usually conducted to limit exposure to a hazardous event is the evacuation of the area that is subject to the effects of the event itself. This involves modifications both to demand (a large number of users all want to move together) and to supply (the transport network may experience changes in capacity, unusable roads, etc.). In order to forecast the traffic evolution in a network during an evacuation, a natural choice is to adopt an approach based on Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) models. However, such models typically give a deterministic prediction of future conditions, whereas evacuations are subject to considerable uncertainty. The aim of the present paper is to describe an evacuation approach for decision support during emergencies that directly predicts the time-evolution of the probability of evacuating users from an area, formulated within a discrete-time stochastic process modelling framework. The approach is applied to a small artificial case as well as a real-life network, where we estimate users' probabilities to reach a desired safe destination and analyze time dependent risk factors in an evacuation scenario.

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“…For instance, an agent senses flood risk when the floodwater level exceeds building heights. In an example of endogenous sensing by Nakanishi et al (2020), agents observe their surrounding environment, updating their knowledge of the relative safety of different locations. Moreover, individuals sense a flood warning issued by the local authority and sense an impending flood at a distance of 100m (Alonso Vicario et al 2020).…”

Section: Sensingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alonso Vicario et al (2020) used different probabilities to add randomness in daily routines and behavioural parameters. Nakanishi et al (2020), also incorporated stochasticity, where agents probabilistically adjust their willingness to evacuate based.…”

Section: Stochasticitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each factor affecting an agent's decision can be randomly assigned a value drawn from probability distributions. Nakanishi et al (2020) use regional demographic information and evacuation policies outlined from survey data, initialising a synthetic population (Nakanishi et al 2020). Han et al (2019) determined decisions based on risk perception and prospect utility using a subjective weighting parameter calculated based on equations.…”

Section: Initializationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A systematic review of agent-based model for flood risk management and assessment using the ODD protocol

et al. 2022

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Recently, applications of agent-based model (ABM) have been used to understand the interaction between social and hydrological systems. These systems are dynamic and co-evolving, which can be captured through different decision-making entities in an ABM simulation. Therefore, this review aims to better understand the use of ABM for flood risk management and assessment (FRMA). The review comprises a systematic selection of literature using the PRISMA method, which is then assessed using an adapted version of the overview, design, and detail (ODD) protocol to better understand the ABM model development process for FRMA. The review finds that the use of the ODD protocol was only seen in 25% of the studies. The studies which did not explicitly use the ODD had a comprehensive description of the models, albeit done in a non-standardised way. Modellers continue to face the dilemma between parsimony and the breadth of the model as identified from the design component of the ODD. The hydrological component is mainly captured in the sub-model process of the ODD, however, improvements in the definition of the sub-model component may warrant a more comprehensive description of the processes and facilitate comparison across studies. The applications of ABM have shown promise to understand long term flood risks, test the efficacy of policies and better understand the factors that affect warning response during the flood evacuation process. ODD adopted for this review may consequently allow for the adoption and more coherent use of the protocol to document models in FRMA.

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Simulating emergencies with transport outcomes Sim (SETOSim): Application of an agent-based decision support tool to community evacuation planning

Cited by 18 publications

References 52 publications

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

Agent-based models of human response to natural hazards: systematic review of tsunami evacuation

Modeling Evacuation Risk Using a Stochastic Process Formulation of Mesoscopic Dynamic Network Loading

A systematic review of agent-based model for flood risk management and assessment using the ODD protocol

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