Hurricane Gonzalo and its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm

Feser, Frauke; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Storch, Hans von; Zahn, Matthias; Barcikowska, Monika; Haeseler, Susanne; Lefebvre, Christiana; Stendel, Martin

doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00122.1

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The observed increase in northern hemispheric storminess towards northern latitudes and a decrease southwards during the past several decades is consistent with the northward shift of storm tracks and their intensity since at 20 least 1970 (e.g. Lehmann et al, 2011;Hov et al, 2013;Feser et al 2014 Lu et al, 2007;Wu et al, 2011;Feser et al, 2015).…”

supporting

confidence: 65%

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C warming scenarios

Barcikowska¹,

Weaver²,

Feser³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe.Located at the south-east exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed 15 to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation which may occur under 1.5°C or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. 20The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolution indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° is not only refining regional-scale information, but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in SLP and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional-to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. 25Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the EuroAtlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level, when the midltatitude jetstream manifests a strengthening north-eastward. At the same time, this north-east shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and north-east expansion of the Azores 30 high leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea.Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwest coasts of British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east from Newfoundland experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub daily precipitation and wind extremes and storminess Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi

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supporting

confidence: 65%

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C warming scenarios

Barcikowska¹,

Weaver²,

Feser³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…The choice of different SST patterns to be removed matters in practice, and this uncertainty is discussed below (e.g., see Figure 3.4). Studies using multiple estimates of counterfactual SSTs have employed both global atmospheric models (e.g., Feser et al, 2015a;Massey et al, 2014;Pall et al, 2011;Rupp et al, 2012) and a regional climate model (discussed further in the next subsection) that is nested within a global atmospheric model (e.g., Bergaoui et al, 2015;Black et al, 2015;.…”

Section: Atmosphere-only Models Using Observed Sstsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

et al. 2016

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“…The strong increase in wave height and storminess between the 1970s and the 1990s over the North Sea and North Atlantic (Carter and Draper 1988;Hogben 1994) raised public concern about a roughening wind climate and speculations about whether global warming might have an impact on storminess (Schmidt and von Storch 1993). With the availability of many more observations and gridded (Feser et al 2015b). Through the strong link to large-scale atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic, conclusions about changes over the North Sea region are best understood in a wider spatial context.…”

Section: Atmospheric Pressure and Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Change—Atmosphere

Stendel

Besselaar

Hannachi

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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This chapter examines past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period; roughly the past 200 years. The variables addressed are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). Temperature has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, especially in spring and in the north. Precipitation has increased in the north and decreased in the south. There has been a north-eastward shift in storm tracks, which agrees with climate model projections. Due to large internal variability, it is not clear which aspects of the observed changes are due to anthropogenic activities and which are internally forced, and long-term trends are difficult to deduce. The number of deep cyclones seems to have increased (but not the total number of cyclones). The persistence of circulation types seems to have increased over the past century, with 'more extreme' extreme events. Changes in extreme weather events, however, are difficult to assess due to changes in instrumentation, station relocations, and problems with digitisation. Without thorough quality control digitised datasets may be useless or even counterproductive. Reanalyses are useful as long as biases introduced by inhomogeneities are properly addressed. It is unclear to what extent circulation over the North Sea region is controlled by distant factors, especially changes in Arctic sea ice.

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Hurricane Gonzalo and its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm

Cited by 14 publications

References 15 publications

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C warming scenarios

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C warming scenarios

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Recent Change—Atmosphere

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