Hybrid zones: windows on climate change

Taylor, Scott A.; Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2015.04.010

Cited by 197 publications

(225 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may shift optimal climates for different forest species. Hence, areas that are now climatically suitable for a given species may cease to be or, on the contrary, climate may determine the enlargement of the potential distribution area of that species (Alfaro et al 2014;Lindner et al 2010;Taylor et al 2015). We found that Eurosiberian conifer and broadleaved trees, which require colder and wetter conditions, will not thrive under the projected future climates, similarly to Ruiz-Labourdette et al (2012) for central Spain Mountains.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

et al. 2016

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As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at *1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species' current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past and future climates (2041-2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of *54 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of *13 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean subhumid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

et al. 2016

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“…Indeed, moving hybrid zones may represent sensitive indicators for anthropogenic climate change (Taylor et al. 2015). Further, the effects of climate change on hybridizing taxa will have widespread evolutionary consequences.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change

McQuillan

Rice

2015

Ecology and Evolution

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The relative contributions of climate versus interspecific interactions in shaping species distributions have important implications for closely related species at contact zones. When hybridization occurs within a contact zone, these factors regulate hybrid zone location and movement. While a hybrid zone's position may depend on both climate and interactions between the hybridizing species, little is known about how these factors interact to affect hybrid zone dynamics. Here, we utilize SDM (species distribution modeling) both to characterize the factors affecting the current location of a moving North American avian hybrid zone and to predict potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on future distributions. We focus on two passerine species that hybridize where their ranges meet, the Black‐capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee. Our contemporary climate models predict the occurrence of climatically suitable habitat extending beyond the hybrid zone for P. atricapillus only, suggesting that interspecific interactions primarily regulate this range boundary in P. atricapillus, while climatic factors regulate P. carolinensis. Year 2050 climate models predict a drastic northward shift in suitable habitat for P. carolinensis. Because of the greater importance of interspecific interactions for regulating the southern range limit of P. atricapillus, these climate‐mediated shifts in the distribution of P. carolinensis may indirectly lead to a range retraction in P. atricapillus. Together, our results highlight the ways climate change can both directly and indirectly affect species distributions and hybrid zone location. In addition, our study lends support to the longstanding hypothesis that abiotic factors regulate species' poleward range limits, while biotic factors shape equatorial range limits.

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“…In some cases, the spatio-temporal dynamics of a range expansion can provide evidence of whether hybridization contributes to range expansion (sensu [53,80]). Specifically, if a range expansion can be observed directly by comparing contemporary populations to historical populations (e.g.…”

Section: Testing the Hypothesis That Hybridization Facilitates Speciementioning

confidence: 99%

Hybridization as a facilitator of species range expansion

Pfennig¹,

Kelly²,

Pierce³

2016

Proc. R. Soc. B.

153

152

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Explaining the evolution of species geographical ranges is fundamental to understanding how biodiversity is distributed and maintained. The solution to this classic problem in ecology and evolution remains elusive: we still do not fully know how species geographical ranges evolve and what factors fuel range expansions. Resolving this problem is now more crucial than ever with increasing biodiversity loss, global change and movement of species by humans. Here, we describe and evaluate the hypothesis that hybridization between species can contribute to species range expansion. We discuss how such a process can occur and the empirical data that are needed to test this hypothesis. We also examine how species can expand into new environments via hybridization with a resident species, and yet remain distinct species. Generally, hybridization may play an underappreciated role in influencing the evolution of species ranges. Whether-and to what extent-hybridization has such an effect requires further study across more diverse taxa.

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Hybrid zones: windows on climate change

Cited by 197 publications

References 103 publications

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change

Hybridization as a facilitator of species range expansion

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