Hydrologic sensitivity of flood runoff and inundation: 2011 Thailand floods in the Chao Phraya River basin

Sayama, Takahiro; Tatebe, Yuya; Iwami, Yoichi; Tanaka, Shigenobu

doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1617-2015

Cited by 77 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Based on Mateo et al (2014), the Manning's coefficient was fixed at 0.024 in the river channel and 0.10 in the floodplain for the entire basin. These values of Manning's coefficient are comparable with those used in other studies in the Chao Phraya River Basin (Visutimeteegorn et al, 2007;Keokhumcheng et al, 2012;Sayama et al, 2015) and those obtained by USGS from lab and field data (Aldridge and Garrett, 1973). By using the calibrated parameters, CaMa-Flood can adequately simulate the discharge and flood inundation in the basin ( Fig.…”

Section: Model Calibration and Validationsupporting

confidence: 88%

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Mateo

Yamazaki

Kim

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large-to globalscale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

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Section: Model Calibration and Validationsupporting

confidence: 88%

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Mateo

Yamazaki

Kim

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The apparent increase in the streamflow in the increasing trend of the precipitation scenarios could lead to flooding events during the wet season. Monsoonal rains occur in the Chao Phraya River every year from May to October, making the watershed vulnerable to flood-related disasters during this season [93][94][95]. In this study, the streamflow increased in May and continued to rise until reaching their peak in September.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 71%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

Water

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Abstract:The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

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“…The model deals with slopes and river channels separately [26,54]. At a grid cell, in which a river channel is located, the model assumes that both the slope and river are positioned within the same grid cell.…”

Section: Rri Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RRI model setup and its equations are explained in Sayama [26,54]. The various applications of the RRI model in hydrological studies can be found in several studies [26,41,54,58,59]. The model equations are derived based on the following mass balance Equation (1) and momentum Equations (2) and (3) for gradually varied unsteady flow:…”

Section: Rri Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

RCP8.5-Based Future Flood Hazard Analysis for the Lower Mekong River Basin

et al. 2017

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Climatic variations caused by the excessive emission of greenhouse gases are likely to change the patterns of precipitation, runoff processes, and water storage of river basins. Various studies have been conducted based on precipitation outputs of the global scale climatic models under different emission scenarios. However, there is a limitation in regional-and local-scale hydrological analysis on extreme floods with the combined application of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models' (AGCM) outputs and physically-based hydrological models (PBHM). This study has taken an effort to overcome that limitation in hydrological analysis. The present and future precipitation, river runoff, and inundation distributions for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) were analyzed to understand hydrological changes in the LMB under the RCP8.5 scenario. The downstream area beyond the Kratie gauging station, located in the Cambodia and Vietnam flood plains was considered as the LMB in this study. The bias-corrected precipitation outputs of the Japan Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.2S) with 20 km horizontal resolution were utilized as the precipitation inputs for basin-scale hydrological simulations. The present climate was represented by the AMIP-type simulations while the future (2075-2099) climatic conditions were obtained based on the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The entire hydrological system of the Mekong basin was modelled by the block-wise TOPMODEL (BTOP) hydrological model with 20 km resolution, while the LMB area was modelled by the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model with 2 km resolution, specifically to analyze floods under the aforementioned climatic conditions. The comparison of present and future river runoffs, inundation distributions and inundation volume changes were the outcomes of the study, which can be supportive information for the LMB flood management, water policy, and water resources development.

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Hydrologic sensitivity of flood runoff and inundation: 2011 Thailand floods in the Chao Phraya River basin

Cited by 77 publications

References 25 publications

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

RCP8.5-Based Future Flood Hazard Analysis for the Lower Mekong River Basin

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