Hydrological modeling in the Upper Blue Nile basin using soil and water analysis tool (SWAT)

Takele, Gebiyaw Sitotaw; Gebre, Geremew Sahilu; Gebremariam, Azage Gebreyohannes; Engida, Agizew Nigussie

doi:10.1007/s40808-021-01085-9

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The absolute location of the basin covers a 7°44 0 32″-12°45 0 19″N latitude in the south-north direction and a 34°29 0 20″-39°48 0 17″E longitude in the west-east direction (Figure 1). The drainage area of the basin at the border station is about 174,166 km 2 (Takele et al 2021). The basin covers 10% of the Nile basin and produces approximately 60% of the water that reaches Egypt and Sudan (Roth et al 2018).…”

Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basin covers 10% of the Nile basin and produces approximately 60% of the water that reaches Egypt and Sudan (Roth et al 2018). Approximately 55.94% of the Upper Blue Nile basin is covered by agricultural land, 18.04% by closed forest, 14.5% by mixed forest, 6.12% by shrubs, and the rest 5.4% by other land-use classes (Takele et al 2021). Soil types in the basin include eutric nitosols (30%), eutric cambisols (24%), humic cambisols (16%), cambic arenosols (14%), dystric cambisols (5%), eutric regosols (3%), water bodies (2), eutric fluvisols (2), chromic vertisols (2%), pellic vertisols (1%), and orthic acrisols (1%).…”

Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) provided a land-use map of the study basin with a resolution of 100 m. The extracted land-use map contains 10 land-use classes, which are agricultural land, bare land, closed forest, grassland, mixed forest, open forest, shrub, urban, water, and wetland (Takele et al 2021). The physical and chemical properties of the soil map of the study basin were taken from the database of the World Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Handling of missing data should be the prioritized in data preparation procedure, especially in an event where all available resources, including partial information, must be used (Hamzah et al 2021). The missing data were filled and homogeneity analysis was performed in R with the CLI-MATOL v3.3 package (Takele et al 2021). These data were used for bias correction for the RCM) simulation, the impact assessment, and the SWAT model simulation.…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SCS runoff curve number, deep aquifer percolation fraction, threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for 'revap' to occur, groundwater delay, soil evaporation compensation factor, effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium, baseflow α-factor, groundwater 'revap' coefficient, available water capacity of the soil layer, saturated hydraulic conductivity, threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur, maximum canopy storage, and manning's n value for the main channel were the most hydrologically sensitive parameters. Takele et al (2021) document the details of the sensitive flow parameters and their fitted values. The selected parameters were calibrated and validated at the Kessie and Border gauging stations.…”

Section: Swat Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Takele

Gebre

Gebremariam

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin using an integrated climate and hydrological model. The impact of climate change on water resources is being assessed using the regional climate model (RCM) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Future climate scenarios have been developed for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). The study found that the projected rainfall shows a decreasing trend and is not statistically significant, while the temperature shows an increasing trend and is statistically significant. Due to the sharp rise in temperature, the annual evapotranspiration increased by about 10.4%. This and the declining trend of rainfall will reduce streamflow up to 54%, surface runoff up to 31%, and water yield up to 31%. Climate change causes seasonal and annual fluctuations in the water balance components. However, the projected seasonal changes are much greater than the annual changes. Therefore, the results of this study will be useful to basin planners, policymakers, and water resources managers in developing adaptation strategies to offset the adverse effects of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile basin.

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Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Description Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Swat Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Takele

Gebre

Gebremariam

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Improving spatio-temporal precipitation estimates in data scarce river basins: an application of machine learning-based multi-source data merging

Mohammed

Mengiste

Singh

2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian model averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya

Bhat

Alam

Farooq

et al. 2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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This study aims to predictthe hydrology of the Jhelum basin under changing climatic scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Six Global Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled for reliable climatic projections over the 21 st century (2020-2080). To reduce the uncertainty associated with climate projections, multi-model ensemble estimations were refined using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The assessment reveals that compared tothe baseline values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41-2.31°C and 0.63-4.82°C and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39-2.37 °C and 2.14-4.34 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5respectively. While as, precipitation is expected to decreases by 7.2-4.57% and 4.75-2.4 7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were used inthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the discharge of rivers in the Jhelum basin is expected to witness reductions by about 23-37% for RCP4.5 and 19-46% for RCP8.5. Moreover, the water yield of the basin may also exhibit decreases of 17-25% for RCP4.5 and 18-42 % for RCP8.5. The projected scenarios are likely to cause water stress, affect the availability of water for diverse uses, and trigger transboundary water sharing related conflicts. The impact of climate change on discharge demands early attention for the development of mitigation and adaptive measures at the regional level and beyond.

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Hydrological modeling in the Upper Blue Nile basin using soil and water analysis tool (SWAT)

Cited by 16 publications

References 41 publications

Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

Improving spatio-temporal precipitation estimates in data scarce river basins: an application of machine learning-based multi-source data merging

Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian model averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya

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