Hydrological responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability in contrasting agro-ecological environments of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Berihun, Mulatu Liyew; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Adgo, Enyew; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Masunaga, Tsugiyuki; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Sultan, Dagnenet; Yibeltal, Mesenbet; Ebabu, Kindiye

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.338

Cited by 128 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…It has been estimated that about 64% of developing countries and 86% of developed countries will be urbanized by 2050 [1,2]. In the process of urbanization, large amounts of agricultural or other non-urban land are transformed into impervious land and the land use change totally alters natural hydrological processes [3,4]. Several studies investigated the effects of urbanization-induced land use changes on runoff.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Effect of Land Use Change on Surface Runoff in a Rapidly Urbanized City: A Case Study of the Central Area of Beijing

Yun-yun

Zhang

2020

Land

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The change in land use during the process of urbanization affects surface runoff and increases flood risk in big cities. This study investigated the impact of land use change on surface runoff in Beijing’s central area during the period of rapid urbanization from 1984 to 2019. Land use maps of 1984, 1999, 2009, and 2019 were generated by image classification of Landsat images. Surface runoffs were calculated with the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) model. Correlation analysis was used to identify the dominant factor of land use change affecting surface runoff. The result showed that the variation trend of surface runoff was consistent with the trend of impervious land in Beijing’s central area, which increased during 1984~2009 and decreased during 2009~2019. Correlation analysis showed that changes in surface runoff were most strongly correlated with changes in impervious surfaces when compared with the correlation of runoff with other types of land use. The results of this study may provide a reference for city flood control and urban planning in fast growing cities worldwide, especially in developing countries.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Effect of Land Use Change on Surface Runoff in a Rapidly Urbanized City: A Case Study of the Central Area of Beijing

Yun-yun

Zhang

2020

Land

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“…Therefore, the objective of this study is directed toward more understanding the characteristics of interannual variability of rainfall in the country and investigating clearly the influence of global SSTs on Ethiopian rainfall peaks at various regions and seasons (summer and spring), to reinforce the skill of rainfall predictions that would be valuable for operations of reservoirs [22], assessment and allocation of water resources [23,24], and for mitigation of disasters related to rainfall such as flooding and drought [25]. Also, better understanding of the rainfall variability plays a key role in several applications including hydrological analysis [26][27][28][29][30][31] and soil erosion risk assessment [32][33][34][35][36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia and Its Long-Term Link to Global Sea Surface Temperatures

Alhamshry

Fenta

Yasuda

et al. 2019

Water

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Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer and spring seasons. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision of rainfall grid points into zones was applied depending on spatial homogeneity and seasonality of rainfall. This introduced new clusters, including nine zones for summer rainfall peak (July/August) and five zones for spring rainfall peak (April/May). Afterward, the time series for each zone was derived by calculating the rainfall averaged over grid points within the zone. Secondly, the oceanic regions that significantly correlated with the Ethiopian rainfall were identified through cross-correlations between rainfalls averaged over every homogeneous zone and the monthly averaged SST. For summer rainfall as a main rainy season, the results indicated that the Gulf of Guinea and southern Pacific Ocean had a significant influence on rainfall zones at a lag time of 5-6 and 6-7 months. Besides, for summer rainfall zones 8 and 9 at lag time 5-6 months, the common SST regions of the southern Pacific Ocean showed the opposite sense of positive and negative correlations. Thus, the difference in SSTs between the two regions was more strongly correlated (r ≥ 0.46) with summer rainfall in both zones than others. For the spring season, the results indicated that SST of the northern Atlantic Ocean had a strong influence on spring rainfall zones (3 and 5) at a lag time 6-7 months, as indicated by a significant correlation (r ≥ −0.40). Therefore, this study suggests that SSTs of southern Pacific and northern Atlantic oceans can be used as effective inputs for prediction models of Ethiopian summer and spring rainfalls, respectively.

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“…Temperature did show a significant increasing trend at the study sites. Berihun, Tsunekawa, Haregeweyn, Meshesha, Adgo, Tsubo, Masunaga, Fenta, Sultan, and Yibeltal [47] also found that station data showed a significant upward trend in temperature but not rainfall in north-western Ethiopia. Moreover, Fenta et al [61] also did not observe a monotonic trend in rainfall time series data in Ethiopia, and Teshome [62] found an increasing temperature trend in the Dembia District in the Upper Blue Nile basin.…”

Section: Exposurementioning

confidence: 87%

“…Guder is moist tropical, with an annual rainfall of 1951-3424 mm, and Dibatie is tropical hot humid, with an annual rainfall of 850-1200 mm [46]. Data from nearby meteorological stations shows that there has been notable climate variability since 1982 [47]. Despite being in different agroecological environments, the watersheds are characterized by similar rainy (June to October) and dry (November to May) seasons, and more than 86% of the rainfall is concentrated during the rainy season.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Communities’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Ethiopia

et al. 2019

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Ethiopia has experienced more than 10 major drought episodes since the 1970s. Evidence has shown that climate change exacerbates the situation and presents a daunting challenge to predominantly rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. The aim of this study was to analyze the extent and sources of smallholder famers’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change/variability in the Upper Blue Nile basin. We conducted a household survey (n = 391) across three distinct agroecological communities and a formative composite index of livelihood vulnerability (LVI) was constructed. The Mann–Kendall test and the standard precipitation index (SPI) were employed to analyze trends of rainfall, temperature, and drought prevalence for the period from 1982 to 2016. The communities across watersheds showed a relative difference in the overall livelihood vulnerability index. Aba Gerima (midland) was found to be more vulnerable, with a score of 0.37, while Guder (highland) had a relatively lower LVI with a 0.34 index score. Given similar exposure to climate variability and drought episodes, communities’ livelihood vulnerability was mainly attributed to their low adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity indicators. Adaptive capacity was largely constrained by a lack of participation in community-based organizations and a lack of income diversification. This study will have practical implications for policy development in heterogeneous agroecological regions for sustainable livelihood development and climate change adaptation programs.

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Hydrological responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability in contrasting agro-ecological environments of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 128 publications

References 72 publications

Assessing the Effect of Land Use Change on Surface Runoff in a Rapidly Urbanized City: A Case Study of the Central Area of Beijing

Assessing the Effect of Land Use Change on Surface Runoff in a Rapidly Urbanized City: A Case Study of the Central Area of Beijing

Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia and Its Long-Term Link to Global Sea Surface Temperatures

Communities’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Ethiopia

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