Identifying and Evaluating a Suitable Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Texas High Plains

Moorhead, Jerry E.; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Singh, Vijay P.; Porter, Dana; Marek, Thomas H.; Howell, T. A.; Stewart, B. A.

doi:10.1111/jawr.12275

Cited by 53 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The hydrologic cycle is adversely affected by climate change, especially shifts in spatial and temporal rainfall distribution and intensity [6,7]. In addition, climate change and climate variability have been causing significant shifts in frequency and intensity of climate extremes, e.g., minimum and maximum temperatures [8,9] and droughts [10][11][12]. Climate extremes, e.g., droughts and floods, disrupt agricultural and ecosystem processes [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Awal

Bayabil

Fares

2016

Water

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Texas' fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state's water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec), and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively), in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) for three future periods: 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high) emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm) and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm) are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 • C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 • C) and ice days (Tmax < 0 • C) are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 • C) and summer days (Tmax > 25 • C) are expected to increase. However, while the frequency distribution of meteorological drought shows slight shifts towards the dry range, there was no significant difference between the baseline and projected meteorological drought frequency and severity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Awal

Bayabil

Fares

2016

Water

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“…Both parameters were considered to be important indicators of the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface and to be representative of any overall changes in the regional water balance. Likewise, in the case of semi-arid regions, such as those of the study area, these parameters can be used to confirm the presence of water deficits [41][42][43].…”

Section: Analysis and Projection Of Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Paredes-Tavares

Albores

Mastachi-Loza

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper analyzed the evolution of climate data in the Rio Bravo Basin in Mexico from 1980-2009 and projects future climate conditions in this region. Then, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources for crops in the nine irrigation districts (IDs) of the Rio Bravo Basin were evaluated. Specifically, climate data on precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and evapotranspiration from the baseline period of 1980-2009 were compared with projected climate conditions for 2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099. The projections were based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Patterns in the behavior of the analyzed climate variables over the past ten decades were examined and compared to the projected evolution of these variables through to the end of the century. Overall, in the future, temperatures, rates of evapotranspiration, and crop water demand are expected to increase. Also, the future precipitation patterns of all IDs were modified under the considered scenarios. Finally, the IDs of Acuña-Falcón and Delicias will be the most impacted by climate changes, while Palestina will be the least affected.

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“…The SPEI was chosen as the drought index based on the findings of Moorhead et al [8]. They investigated several drought indices for suitability of agricultural drought monitoring.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding drought conditions, or more importantly, the probability of drought occurrence and severity, can be beneficial for managing water resources. For monitoring agricultural drought, Moorhead et al [8] found the Standardized PrecipitationEvapotranspiration Index (SPEI- [9]) to be the most suitable drought index. The SPEI accounts for precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET), which are two of the main components of the water balance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exceedance Probability of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index in the Texas High Plains

Moorhead¹,

Marek²,

Gowda³

et al. 2017

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Drought is a common occurrence in many arid and semi-arid regions that can have large negative impacts on water resources and agricultural production. Since agricultural drought is affected by both water supply and demand (precipitation and evapotranspiration), it is beneficial to include both in agricultural drought monitoring. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was found to be a suitable drought index for monitoring agricultural drought. In this study, the SPEI calculated from agro-meteorological weather stations was used to determine exceedance probabilities at five levels in the Texas High Plains. In addition, the kriging method was used to interpolate between the stations to generate spatial maps for the exceedance probabilities. No significant differences were found between stations, indicating any station should be suitable to represent the Texas High Plains. Results showed drought conditions occurred at all five probability levels during the summer growing season for this region. Although differences were not significantly different, the interpolated maps showed a trend where minor differences in the SPEI values were associated with the West-East precipitation gradient. However, there was no trend associated with the North-South air temperature gradient. A risk analysis showed that the SPEI probability values can provide policy and decision makers with additional information for better water management in the Texas High Plains.

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Identifying and Evaluating a Suitable Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Texas High Plains

Cited by 53 publications

References 27 publications

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Exceedance Probability of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index in the Texas High Plains

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