Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

Shrestha, B.; Babel, Mukand S.; Maskey, Shreedhar; Griensven, Ann van; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Green, A.; Akkharath, Inthavy

doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3339-2012

Cited by 21 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Predicting the impact of climate change on water resources, agriculture, and other sectors is difficult [37] and needs the use of possible scenario changes defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [38]. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC was published in 2014.…”

Section: Construction Of Climate Scenarios Description Of Climate Chamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961-1982 and 1983-2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969Makana, and -1985Makana, and and 1986Makana, and -2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (F agg ) which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon), compared to the 1971-2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin) to 22% (Gambia River Basin) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin) and 26% (Gambia River Basin). The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

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Section: Construction Of Climate Scenarios Description Of Climate Chamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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“…Many studies have shown that climate change could significantly affect soil erosion [7][8][9][10][11]. The most direct impact of climate change on soil erosion is the change in the erosive power of rainfall [9][10][11][12][13]. The contribution of water as an erosion agent can be represented by rainfall erosivity (R-factor).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

et al. 2013

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This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition) in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional circulation model (RCM) consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov) model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change), indirect impact (land use change) and full range of impact (climate and land use change) to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 3245 planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

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“…Land-use management practices (e.g., urbanization, changes in land use, land management and agricultural practices), changes in water management practices (e.g., dam constructions or demolition, streamflow regulation, introduction of flood control mechanisms) and river sand mining are the most prominent human-induced drivers that affect fluvial sediment supply [7,12,13,15,18]. Owing to the aforementioned factors, human activities have simultaneously increased catchment sediment yield via accelerated soil erosion, yet, have also significantly reduced the amount of sediment received by the coasts due to retention within reservoirs [3,7,13,15,16,[20][21][22]]. …”

Section: Factors Affecting Fluvial Sediment Supply To Coastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The combined effect of reduced rainfall and increased temperature results in water stresses to plants, resulting in diminished growths and, hence, amplified soil erosion that results in a larger sediment yield from catchments. Contrariwise, high rainfall and low temperatures facilitate favourable conditions for plant growth, and hence reduce soil erosion, which in turn diminishes the sediment yield from catchments [16]. Global-scale studies indicate that the rivers contemporary discharge less water to the oceans due to both increased water usage and diminished precipitation [7,15,[17][18][19], which, in turn, directly affects fluvial sediment supply to the coasts and oceans.…”

Section: Factors Affecting Fluvial Sediment Supply To Coastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climatic factors such as temperature, mean and extreme rainfall, and river flow are the main factors that affect fluvial sedimentation [12,13,16]. Predicted climate changes in the future would most likely result in an increased temperature [17], thus influencing the rate of soil erosion (both chemical and mechanical) and storage and the release of water from the Earth's lithosphere [13].…”

Section: Factors Affecting Fluvial Sediment Supply To Coastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets

Bamunawala

Maskey

Duong

et al. 2018

JMSE

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Abstract:The sediment budget associated with future coastline change in the vicinity of tidal inlets consists of four components; sea level rise-driven landward movement of the coastline (i.e., the Bruun effect), basin infilling effect due to sea level rise-induced increase in accommodation space, basin volume change due to variation in river discharge, and coastline change caused by change in fluvial sediment supply. These four components are affected by climate change and/or anthropogenic impacts. Despite this understanding, holistic modelling techniques that account for all the aforementioned processes under both climate change and anthropogenic influences are lacking. This manuscript presents the applications of a newly-developed reduced complexity modelling approach that accounts for both climate change and anthropogenically-driven impacts on future coastline changes. Modelled results corresponding to the year 2100 indicate considerable coastline recessions at Wilson Inlet (152 m) and the Swan River system (168 m) in Australia and Tu Hien Inlet (305 m) and Thuan An Inlet (148 m) in Vietnam. These results demonstrate that coastline models should incorporate both climate change and anthropogenic impacts to quantify future changes in fluvial sediment supply to coasts to achieve better estimates of total coastline changes at tidal inlets. Omission of these impacts is one of the major drawbacks in all the existing coastline models that simulate future coastline changes at tidal inlets. A comparison of these modelled future coastline changes with the predictions made by a relevant existing modelling technique (Scale Aggregated Model for Inlet-interrupted Coasts (SMIC)) indicates that the latter method overestimates total coastline recessions at the Swan River system, and the Tu Hien and Thuan An Inlets by 7%, 10%, and 30%, respectively, underlining the significance of integrating both climate change and anthropogenic impacts to assess future coastline changes at tidal inlets.

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Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

Cited by 21 publications

References 59 publications

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets

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