Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

Mohanty, Sanjay K.; Dubey, Manisha; Mishra, Udaya S.; Sahoo, Umakanta

doi:10.1101/2020.07.06.20147009

Cited by 17 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Estimates of YLL due to COVID-19 are already available. 11,12,13 Three differences between the two above equations can be observed. The last difference concerns the denominator, or lack thereof in the YLL.…”

Section: Conceptual Detourmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to global 2020 quarterly mortality from COVID-19

Heuveline

2020

Preprint

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The impact of COVID-19 on the individual lifespan can be measured by the difference in period life expectancy at birth (PLEB), an intuitive indicator of mortality conditions during a reference period. When mortality conditions are changing rapidly, however, that intuitive interpretation of the PLEB for short reference periods and of its change conflict with the assumptions under which the PLEB is derived. To avoid assumptions about future mortality, I propose measuring instead the Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL), defined as the average difference between the actual and otherwise expected ages at death in a recent death cohort. For fine-grained tracking of the pandemic, I also provide an empirical shortcut to MUL estimation for small areas or short periods. I estimate quarterly MUL values for the first half of 2020 in 142 national populations and 91 sub-national populations in Italy, Spain and the US. Across countries, the highest quarterly values were reached in the second quarter in Peru (3.90 years) and in Ecuador (4.59 years). Higher quarterly values still were found in New York and New Jersey, where individuals died respectively 5.41 and 5.56 years younger on average than their expected age at death. Using a seven-day rolling window, I estimate the MUL peaked at 7.32 years in Lombardy, 8.96 years in Madrid, and 8.93 years in New York, but reached 12.86 years for the entire month of April in Guayas (Ecuador). These results illustrate how the MUL provides an intuitive metric to track the pandemic without requiring assumptions about future mortality.

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Section: Conceptual Detourmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Several assessments of the impact of COVID-19 using this approach already exist, measuring this impact in total number of years lost to the pandemic and allowing for comparisons with other causes of death. 13 , 14 , 15 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to global 2020 quarterly mortality from COVID-19

Heuveline

2020

Preprint

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“…An assessment, using a similar time frame, followed for Italy [8]. To date, published studies have only included one COVID-19 related health state, or disability weights were country-specific [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Burden of Disease Methods: A Guide to Calculate COVID-19 Disability-Adjusted Life Years

Wyper¹,

Assunção²,

Colzani³

et al. 2021

Int J Public Health

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“…Countries like, Sweden, and Germany responded early and successfully. Though others such as Italy, Spain and France, the action was different and thus it resulted in a high number of deaths [2][3][4] . The impact was even worse in developing countries such as Iran and Brazil as the early action was improper and in uenced by virtual local understanding [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiological and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) in Libya

Daw

El-Bouzedi

Ahmed

2020

Preprint

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Background: COVID-19 is a global pandemic that affected all aspects of life. Studies on understanding the geographical and epidemiological characteristics become particularly important in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Such studies are lacking in Northern African countries particularly in Libya, which considered being, the second largest country in Africa with the longest coast facing Europe. The objectives of this study are to; determine the epidemiological parameters and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in this large country and outline the needed strategies to contain the spread and the consequences of the pandemic. Methods: This comprehensive study included all the confirmed cases of COVID-19 since its emergence in Libya, from early April 2020 until August 31th. The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were analyzed and the spatial dynamic trends were explored. A region -based counts of weekly reported cases were used to characterize and quantify the spatial dynamics of COVID-19. Results: A total 3695 of confirmed cases of OVID-19 were collected, 2515(68.1%) were males and 1180(31.9%) female with a male-to-female(M:F) ratio 2.1:1. Aged between 2 -78 years old. Older age patients infected with COVID-19 are at higher severity and mortality. A broad geographic variability and Spatiotemporal spread variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Libya was observed. Indicating a higher significant increase of COVID-19 from the middle of July particularly in the West and Southern regions although it was consistently observed in Meddle and Southern regions. Conclusion: Evaluating the epidemiological data and the spatiotemporal dynamic trends of COVID-19 at early stages are particularly important in understanding the pandemic spread. These parameters are essential in designing effective prevention and control programs aimed at reducing the impact of COVID- 19 pandemic particularly in countries with limited resources.

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Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

Cited by 17 publications

References 37 publications

The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to global 2020 quarterly mortality from COVID-19

The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to global 2020 quarterly mortality from COVID-19

Burden of Disease Methods: A Guide to Calculate COVID-19 Disability-Adjusted Life Years

The Epidemiological and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) in Libya

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