Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Szwagrzyk, Marcin; Kaim, Dominik; Price, Bronwyn; Wypych, Agnieszka; Grabska, Ewa; Kozak, Jacek

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3384-y

Cited by 59 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Simulating future LULC is subject to uncertainty (Szwagrzyk et al, 2018). Although combined LR and CA-Markov Chain model considers a wide range of driving forces, it does not incorporate exogenous covariates such as personal preferences and government regulations (Arsanjani et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, areas predicted to be transformed into settlements by the LULC model should be interpreted as areas most suitable for future settlement development, rather than the precise locations of future change (Szwagrzyk et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The pattern of LULC determines the amount of runoff generated during a precipitation event, thus, influencing the water balance in an area. Hence, LULC may affect both the probability of flooding and its consequences (McColl and Aggett, 2007;Szwagrzyk et al, 2018). Flood losses are not only dependent on extreme hydro-meteorological conditions of a region, unplanned land use can multiply property damages (Lee and Brody, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of changing land use and flood hazard on poverty in coastal Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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The construction of polders in the coastal region of Bangladesh has significantly modified the patterns of flooding, as well as leading to significant land use/land cover (hereinafter, LULC) changes. The impact of LULC change and flooding on poverty is complex and poorly understood. This study presents a spatiotemporal appraisal of poverty in relation to LULC change and pluvial flood risk in the south western embanked area of Bangladesh. A combination of logistic regression (LR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov Chain models were utilised to predict future LULC based on historical data. Flood risk assessment was performed at present and for future LULC scenarios. A spatial regression model was developed, incorporating multiple parameters to estimate the wealth index (WI) for presentday and future scenarios. In the study area, agricultural lands reduced from 34% in 2005 to 8% in 2010, while aquaculture land cover increased from 17% to 39% during the same time. The rate of LULC change was relatively low between 2010 and 2019. Based on the recent trend, LULC was predicted for the year 2030. Flood risk was positively correlated with LULC and the expected annual damage (EAD) was estimated at $903 million in 2005, which is likely to increase to $2096 million by 2030, considering changes in LULC scenarios. The analysis further showed that the EAD and LULC change were negatively associated with the WI.Despite consistent national GDP growth in Bangladesh in recent years, the rate of increase of WI is likely to be low in the future because flood risk and patterns of LULC change have a negative effect on WI.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of changing land use and flood hazard on poverty in coastal Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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“…As for the predicted land use and land cover changes, refrainment from agricultural activities in the mountainous regions and gradual reforestation of the abandoned areas has already been observed in some regions (Price et al 2017;Tasser et al 2017). Moreover, due to socioeconomic changes, areas used for agriculture are gradually being transformed and used for non-agricultural purposes, including residential, construction, or service facilities (Verburg et al 2008;Bucała-Hrabia 2017a, b;Szwagrzyk et al 2018). Such changes may have contradictory impacts on the formation of runoff, and therefore for the sediment delivery from the cat chment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment load variability in response to climate and land use changes in a Carpathian catchment (Raba River, Poland)

2020

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Purpose This study analyzes the variability of sediment loads under variant climate change and land use scenarios in a Carpathian catchment with a dam reservoir. The areas with the highest share of sediment loads are tracked to establish possible indications for future catchment management plans. Materials and methods Analyses were performed for the Raba River catchment (Poland, Carpathian Mountains) with use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT. The RCP 4.5 climate forecast predictions (2021-2050 and 2071-2100), downscaled for the area of Poland, and land use predictions from the DYNA-Clue model for the Carpathian area, were taken into consideration. A total of seven scenarios were created, accounting for precipitation (P1 and P2), temperature (T1 and T2), land use (LU) changes, and combined effects (COMB1 and COMB2).Results and discussion The average load delivered to the dam reservoir was estimated as 2.43 Gg y −1 , and its seasonal/yearly variability was followed by local meteorological phenomena. Among the tested factors, precipitation change, in terms of total amount and intensity, exerted the most impact on sediment loads causing their increase. Temperature and land use changes resulted in a slight decrease. Combined scenarios implied that changes of the catchment area use, such as increase of forest cover, can noticeably reduce sediment loads delivered into a dam reservoir. Conclusions The performed simulations revealed the importance of incorporating variant scenarios for catchment management plans, development of land use mitigation measures (erosion), and operational procedures for the dam reservoir. Particular attention should be paid to warmer winters with heavy rainfalls and temperatures above zero, which together with a lack of plant vegetation result in elevated annual sediment loads reaching the dam reservoir. Further changes must be mitigated by anti-erosion investments.

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“…Factors affecting flood can be natural biophysical properties of watersheds such as slope steepness, geomorphologies (Olang and Früst, 2011;Ayalew et al, 2014;Vanier et al, 2014;Asfaha et al, 2015;Geris et al, 2015) and rainfall properties as an input of watersheds system (Paschalis et al, 2014). Besides natural characteristics, anthropogenic factors, which are land use and land cover changes, have essential impacts on flooding (Kundu and Olang, 2011;Appolonio et al, 2016;Szwagrzyk, 2018). In addition, flooding can be caused by non-proper drainage systems and expansion of impervious areas due to high housing density in urban regions (Zope et al, 2017;Myronidis and Ioannou, 2019;Rubinato et al, 2019;Psomiades et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peak flood volume and its suspended sediment at various rainfall in Kedungbulus catchment in Gombong, Central Java, Indonesia

Basuki

Pramono

2021

J.Degrade.Min.Land Manage.

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Flood is a natural disaster that frequently happens and causes many material and immaterial losses. During flooding, the suspended sediment is carried along by the streamflow. The amount of sediment transported varies and depends on natural and anthropogenic factors. Limited studies have been conducted regarding the relationship between peak flood volume and its sediment content. Therefore, a study with the purpose to understand the relationship of rainfall characteristics, peak flood volume, and suspended sediment was undertaken in Kedungbulus Catchment in Gombong, Central Java, Indonesia. The size of Kedungbulus catchment is 37.8 km2. To collect the required data, an automatic stream water level recorder was installed in the outlet of the catchment. In addition, an automatic and two conventional rain gauges were set up inside the catchment. Hydrograph and statistical analysis were conducted on 2016-2017 data. The results showed that during the study period, the highest peak flood volume occurred on October 8, 2016. The flood duration was 490 minutes, with the time to peak was 135 minutes. At the highest peak flood volume, the stream water was 5,091,221 m3, and the suspended sediment was around 2,394 tons. Rainfall depth significantly affects the peak flood volume and its suspended sediment. The rainfall intensity and Antecedent Soil Moisture Content (ASMC) weakly correlate with peak flood volume and its suspended sediment content.

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Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Cited by 59 publications

References 26 publications

The effects of changing land use and flood hazard on poverty in coastal Bangladesh

The effects of changing land use and flood hazard on poverty in coastal Bangladesh

Sediment load variability in response to climate and land use changes in a Carpathian catchment (Raba River, Poland)

Peak flood volume and its suspended sediment at various rainfall in Kedungbulus catchment in Gombong, Central Java, Indonesia

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