Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

Abstract

This study aims to explore the effects of geopolitical risk on the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) tourism index and tourist arrivals. The effects of the geopolitical risk index on the BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals were analyzed based on the data between January 1998 and October 2020, and the findings were presented. Time series analysis methods were used in the study. To investigate the relationship between variables, it was first tested whether the series of variables are stationary or not. Then, Lee-Strazicich unit root test was applied, considering the structural breaks. Finally, the causality relationship between variables and the direction of this relationship was determined by the Hatemi-J causality test. According to the findings, there is an asymmetrical relationship between Turkey's geopolitical risks with BIST tourism index. The increase in Turkey's geopolitical risks, causes a significant decrease in tourism BIST returns. Likewise, when the risk decreases, BIST tourism returns increase. On the other hand, the reduction of geopolitical risk in Turkey causes an increase in tourist arrivals.

Asymmetric Causalty Relationship Between Alternative Investment Instruments and Stock Prices: The Türki̇ye Sample

“…For this purpose, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests are used to determine the stationarity level of the variables. In addition, in order to capture possible structural breaks in the variables, the stationarity level of the variables was determined by using the Lee-Strazcich (2003) (LS) unit root test, which takes into account two structural breaks (Polat, Alptürk and Gürsoy, 2021).…”

Comparison of the Effect of Global and Turkish Geopolitical Risks on Bist Tourism Index

“…(2020) çalışması ile benzerlik göstermektedir. Polat (2021) Türkiye GPR'nin turizm endeksi üzerinde etkili olduğu sonucunun aksine çalışmamızda Türkiye GPR'nin BİST Turizm endeksi üzerinde etkili olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde ettiğimiz bu sonuç Gülcan ve Ceyhan (2022) çalışmasına benzerlik göstermektedir.…”

The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk and Credit Default Swap Premium: Evidence from Turkey*

“…al. 2020, real economy (Deng & Habib 2021), economic growth (Akadiri et al 2019, Soybilgen et al 2019, tourism (Akadiri et al 2019, Demir et al 2020, Lee et al 2020 , stock market (Bouras et al 2019, Chiang 2021, Gemici & Kılıç 2019, Jiang et al 2020, Polat et al 2021, Triki & Ben Maatoug 2021, Üçler & Özşahin 2020, Sekmen 2020, İltaş 2020, petroleum (Liu et al 2019, Qin et al 2020 and direct foreign investment (Arslan 2019) is investigated. Still, to the authors' knowledge, apart from Alptürk et al (2021) no study concentrating on the dependency between CDS premium and geopolitical risk is available.…”

“…Within this context, the objective of this study is to investigate the impact of geopolitical risks on the CDS premium of Turkey. Literature reviewed within this scope assesses the relationship between geopolitical risk and gold (Baur & Smales, 2018;Das, et al, 2019), bitcoin (Bouri et al, 2020;Aysan et al, 2019), real economy (Deng & Habib, 2021), economic growth (Akadiri et al, 2019;Soybilgen et al, 2019), tourism (Lee et al, 2020;Demir et al, 2020), stock market (Bouras et al, 2019;Chiang, 2021;Jiang et al, 2020;Gemici & Kılıç, 2019;Polat et al, 2021;Üçler & Özşahin, 2020;Sekmen, 2020;İltaş, 2020) and petroleum (Liu et al, 2019). In this step, only one study (Alptürk et al, 2021) investigating the interdependency between geopolitical risk and CDS premium is reviewed.…”