Multi-stage hydraulic fracturing along with horizontal wells are widely used to create complex fracture networks in tight oil reservoirs. Analysis of field flowback data shows that most of the fracturing fluids are contained in a complex fracture network, and fracture-closure is the main driving mechanism during early clean up. At present, the related fracture parameters cannot be accurately obtained, so it is necessary to study the impacts of fracture compressibility and uncertainty on water-loss and the subsequent production performance. A series of mechanistic models are established by considering stress-dependent porosity and permeability. The impacts of fracture uncertainties, such as natural fracture density, proppant distribution, and natural fracture heterogeneity on flowback and productivity are quantitatively assessed. Results indicate that considering fracture closure during flowback can promote water imbibition into the matrix and delay the oil breakthrough time compared with ignoring fracture closure. With the increase of natural fracture density, oil breakthrough time is advanced, and more water is retained underground. When natural fractures connected with hydraulic fractures are propped, well productivity will be enhanced, but proppant embedment can cause a loss of oil production. Additionally, the fracture network with more heterogeneity will lead to the lower flowback rate, which presents an insight in the role of fractures in water-loss.