Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

Barcikowska, Monika; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3735-5

Cited by 39 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 94 publications

(112 reference statements)

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“…The area under study is the European continent, excluding the British Isles and Scandinavia, divided into two regions; Central Europe (CEU) and the Mediterranean (MED). This choice of regions is based on the north‐to‐south differences in hydroclimatic regime reported in various studies (Barcikowska et al, ; Hurrell & Van Loon, ; Stagge et al, ). The two regions are determined according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extremes (Seneviratne et al, ), with the MED region defined by the rectangle 30–45°N, 10°W to 40°E and the rest of the study domain corresponding to the CEU region (see supporting information, Figure S1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 250‐Year European Drought Inventory Derived From Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling

Moravec

Markonis

Rakovec

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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We present a 250‐year (1766–2015) inventory of European meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts derived from ensemble simulations of the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). The inventory of droughts takes into account an ensemble of 100 simulations from the hydrological model, allowing for assessment of how different meteorological forcing and model parameterizations affect a drought ranking. For the most extreme droughts, the variability in the ranking of drought events is low, while for the years with moderate precipitation deficits, the variability increases. Despite the underlying uncertainties, our drought inventory shows increased recurrence of soil moisture droughts in the Mediterranean and declining spatial extent of hydrological drought in Central Europe over the last three decades.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 250‐Year European Drought Inventory Derived From Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling

Moravec

Markonis

Rakovec

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…For example, the first half a degree warming is also forced by the reduced concentrations of aerosols, which may amplify warming over regions like North America. Hence, one may expect different or even contrasting responses, as also demonstrated in previous studies analyzing other simulations following the HAPPI design (Barcikowska et al 2018a, 2018b, Li et al 2018. Figure 3 shows that the responses to the first half a degree warming and the additional half a degree warming are different, both in terms of the intensity and spatial distribution of warming, and also the atmospheric flow.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…The RVs were estimated by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution by the method of maximum log likelihood estimation (MLE) (Coles 2001, Smith 2003, Wilks 2006, Gilleland and Katz 2014 to a block (March-April) maximum/minimum in the 50-year sample of ensemble runs. The details of the estimation follow the description in Barcikowska et al (2018aBarcikowska et al ( , 2018b, except that the goodness of fit to the GEV model is estimated with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…underestimated frequency and persistence of blocking events, as shown in Anstey et al 2013 andMasato et al 2013) although with improvements when simulated at higher horizontal resolution (∼0.25°-0.5°, Schiemann et al 2017). Increased horizontal resolution has also been shown to improve representation of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, and hence improved climatology of the regional weather and its extremes during cool season (Kitoh and Endo 2016, Barcikowska et al 2018a, 2018b, although some studies (Muñoz et al 2017) do not find a clear improvement in the representation of the atmospheric fields when horizontal resolution is increased. Although the reduced variance of daily temperatures is projected by global climate models during autumn, winter and spring, the amplification of warming cold extremes has been shown for the autumn and winter season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America

Barcikowska

Muñoz

Weaver

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study focuses on potential impacts of climate change on the early spring (March-April) temperature and its extremes in the mid-latitudes of North America, discriminated between the 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming, as projected by a suit of numerical experiments. The results suggest relatively mild seasonal average warming (0.25°C-1.5°C), but also an intensification of both warm and cold temperature extremes. The derived changes feature much stronger warming over the West of the United States and weak to no warming to the East, which is congruent with the ventilating effect of the intensified northerly wind over central Canada and the East of the United States. The intensified northerly component of the mid-latitude jet is likely a contributing factor to the derived increased seasonal variability of March-April temperatures over parts of Manitoba and Ontario in Canada, and the Midwest of the United States. The projected changes in temperature extremes agree to some extent with the previous studies: warm extremes intensify especially over southern midlatitudes, while cold extremes are weakening over the north mid-to high-latitudes. However, highresolution simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model 5 (CAM5) indicate much sharper spatial gradients, which translate into higher magnitudes and also more complex patterns of changes. Particularly, cold extremes feature not only reductions north of ∼45°N latitudes, but also a very strong intensification of cold extremes (by −4°C for 20 year return values) in the band 25°-45°N, centered in the Midwest of the United States. While general warming and intensification of the warm extremes may accelerate the arrival of early spring, the intensifying cold extremes may increase the risk of early spring frost damage, and hence may yield a profound impact on the regional agriculture of North America. Combined with reliable information on expected temperature variability at interannual-todecadal timescales, the background longer-term projections can help inform decision makers in the food security sector.

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“…Extreme precipitation is one of the most significant research subjects in climatology during the last decades [1] and it is associated with the ongoing climatic change [2]. During extreme precipitation events, accumulated rainfall is often characterized by high spatial variability [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Measurements Due to Radio Frequency Signal Attenuation at 2 GHz

Christofilakis¹,

Tatsis²,

Votis³

et al. 2018

JSIP

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In this paper we present an experimental validated system for measuring rainfall due to radio frequency (RF) signal attenuation at 2 GHz. Measurements took place in Ioannina, NW Greece, starting in April 2015 and lasting for twelve months. The primary acquired extensive results have shown reliable and accurate measurements for rainfall amounts smaller than 1 mm for 5 min periods. The very important innovation is that this paper presents significant earth-to-earth measurements due to rainfall attenuation (at 2 GHz) in order to act as a map for future investigation and as a prior knowledge for the behavior of other systems operating at frequencies around S-band.

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Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

Cited by 39 publications

References 94 publications

A 250‐Year European Drought Inventory Derived From Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling

A 250‐Year European Drought Inventory Derived From Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling

On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America

Rainfall Measurements Due to Radio Frequency Signal Attenuation at 2 GHz

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