Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature

Abstract

The recent hiatus in global warming is likely to be reflected in Andean temperature, given its close dependence on tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). While recent work in the subtropical Andes has indeed documented a cooling along coastal areas, trends in the tropical Andes show continued warming. Here we analyze spatiotemporal temperature variability along the western side of the Andes with a dense station network updated to 2010 and investigate its linkages to tropical Pacific modes of variability. Results indicate that the warming in tropical latitudes has come to a halt and that the subtropical regions continue to experience cooling. Trends, however, are highly dependent on elevation. While coastal regions experience cooling, higher elevations continue to warm. The coastal cooling is consistent with the observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fingerprint and can be accurately simulated using a simple PDO-analog model. Much of the PDO imprint is modulated and transmitted through adjustments in coastal SST off western South America. At inland and higher-elevation locations, however, temperature trends start to diverge from this PDO-analog model in the late 1980s and have by now emerged above the 1σ model spread. Future warming at higher elevation is likely and will contribute to further vertical stratification of atmospheric temperature trends. In coastal locations, future warming or cooling will depend on the potential future intensification of the South Pacific anticyclone but also on continued temperature dependence on the state of the PDO.

Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru

“…We have not investigated thermal conditions but the perceived increase in the frequency of ground frosts in the early growing season (as stated by some farmers) contradicts increasing (minimum) temperatures as reported by Schauwecker et al (2014) or in Vuille et al (2015). The increases in minimum temperatures are reported to be most pronounced in the dry and early wet season.…”

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

“…Similarly, the largescale drivers of this retreat, such as increasing temperature (Vuille and Bradley, 2000;Bradley et al, 2009;Schauwecker et al, 2014;Vuille et al, 2015) or potential changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of snowfall (Vuille and Ammann, 1997;Mernild et al, 2016;Saavedra et al, 2016), thereby altering the glacier's energy and mass balance, have been widely studied and discussed. Hence the goal of this paper is not to provide yet another detailed review of these observed changes, but rather to look ahead as to what impacts the region will face over the coming decades as glaciers continue to retreat and some eventually disappear.…”

Changes in carbon storage with land management promoted by payment for ecosystem services

“…There is, however, a trend toward slightly drier conditions on the Western cordillera of the Andes in southern Peru and western Bolivia (Vuille et al 2003). Increased NDVI across the study area is more likely due to a temperature increase of 0.9-0.15 ∘ C per decade since 1939 (Vuille & Bradley 2000;Vuille et al 2003Vuille et al , 2015Bradley et al 2006;Thibeault et al 2010;Seiler et al 2013). High-elevation biomes are particularly sensitive to increased temperature, with species or whole vegetation zones expected to migrate to higher elevations (Benniston 2003) provided suitable soils are available (Lee et al 2005).…”