Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in Central Europe

Abstract

The main objective of the present crop simulation study was to determine the impact of climate change on the winter wheat production of a dry area situated in north-east Austria (Marchfeld region) based on the CERES-Wheat crop-growth simulation model associated with global circulation models (GCMs). The effects of some of the feasible regional-and farm-based adaptation measures (management options) on crop yield and water and nitrogen (N) balance under the climate scenarios were simulated. Climate scenarios were defined based on the ECHAM5, HadCM3 and NCAR PCM GCM simulations for future conditions (2021-50) as described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B (Nakicenovic & Swart 2000). The potential development, yield, water demand and soil N leaching were estimated for winter wheat and all of the defined climates (including rising CO 2 levels) and management scenarios (soil cultivation, windbreaks and irrigation).The results showed that a warming of 2°C in the air temperature would shorten the crop-growing period by up to 20 days and would decrease the potential winter wheat yield on nearly all of the soil types in the region. Particularly, high-yield reductions were projected for light-textured soils such as Parachernozems. A change from ploughing to minimum tillage within the future scenario would lead to an increase of up to 8% of the mean yield of winter wheat. This effect mainly resulted from improved water supply to the crop, associated with higher soil water storage capacity and decrease of unproductive water losses. Hedgerows, which reduce the wind speed, were predicted to have particularly positive effects on medium and moderately fine-textured soils such as Chernozems and Fluvisols. With both management changes, regional mean-yield level can be expected to be +4% in comparison with no management changes in the future conditions. Compared with the baseline period, water demand for the potential yield of winter wheat would require 6-37 mm more water per crop season (areaweighted average). The highest water demand would be on medium-textured soils, which make up the largest amount of area in the study region. Additionally, the effects of snow accumulation near hedgerows would further increase the yield, but would also lead to higher N leaching rates. However, specific management options, such as minimum tillage and hedgerows, could contribute towards reducing the increasing water demand.

Kapitel 2: Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Wasser, Ökosysteme und Biodiversität

“…Band 2, Kapitel 3), mit einer Zunahme des Bewässerungsbedarfes zur Erhaltung des heutigen Ertragsniveaus (Ertragssicherung) zu rechnen ist (vgl. Band 2, Kapitel 2, Kromp-Kolb et al, 2007;Thaler et al, 2012;Trnka et al, 2011;WPDA, 2011). Die Zunahmen im relativen Wasserbedarf für die Hauptackerbaugebiete im Osten Österreichs liegen unter diesen Klimaverände-rungen für Getreide im Mittel bei ca.…”

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

“…Recent drought episodes after 2000 led to increased research efforts focusing on drought climatology, causes and impacts , Škvarenina et al 2009, Brázdil et al 2013, Potop et al 2014, Bochní<ek et al 2015. In the case of Austria, drought studies have focused on alpine hydrology, drought impacts on agriculture and hydrological factors such as runoff and groundwater tables (Blaschke et al 2011, Thaler et al 2012, van Loon et al 2015 but have not assessed the trends in drought indicators. In the Czech Republic, however, drought trends be tween 1961 and 2000 or 2010 have been evaluated in several studies (e.g.…”

Untitled

“…scenario, the yield was predicted to decrease by -45%, -13%, and -7% respectively. This means that the predicted climate changes will have both negative and positive impact on winter wheat yield [38][39][40][41][42][43].…”