Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa

Guzha, Alphonce C.; Rufino, Mariana C.; Okoth, Sheila; Jacobs, Suzanne; Nóbrega, Rodolfo

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.005

Cited by 342 publications

(236 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Overall, analyses on subcatchment scale (Figures 10 and 12) show that the conversion into cropland leads to increasing surface runoff and overall water yield (Figure 10a,b), whereas a more diverse picture is shown for the rice setups (Figure 10d,e), due to the differences in LULC in the setups ( Figure 5) and the aforementioned water demand of rice plants [29]. Average annual evapotranspiration is decreasing in both agricultural setups in most of the subcatchments, especially where natural systems are converted into agricultural production zones, which is in line with other studies from the tropics [3,6,7]. Still, there are studies that report increasing evapotranspiration due to conversion of forests to cropland [91].…”

Section: Land Use/cover and Climate Change Impact Assessment On Watersupporting

confidence: 88%

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2019

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Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6-8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.Sustainability 2019, 11, 7083 2 of 28 increased agricultural outputs such as food and timber production [9,13]. Several water-related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk due to land conversions into arable land, especially with regard to SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) [13,14].Several studies investigated the impact of LULCC and climate change on water resources separately [3,15] or simultaneously [16,17]. The results of the studies differ due to several reasons e.g., the type of LULCC, the regional focus, or the time period and model chosen to simulate climate change. However, many studies indicate an increased exposure to hydro-climatic extremes in Eastern Africa [18][19][20][21]. This study exemplarily analyzes LULCC compared to climate change in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania and how these affect water resources. The catchment itself is subject to aforementioned LULCC [1,13] and pressure on land resources in the valley is fostered by government plans to implement the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) [22], which is accompanied by a growing population and migration of pastoralists into the valley [23]. SAGCOT follows a green growth approach covering three development clusters in Kilombero, Ihemi, and Mbarali, comprising one third of the mainland of Tanzania [1,24,25]. On the one hand the key clusters are charac...

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Section: Land Use/cover and Climate Change Impact Assessment On Watersupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Recent developments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) show an increasing trend of conversion of natural land cover into arable land [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Drivers of change are manifold and can be directly linked to human activities such as population growth, economic development, and globalization [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2019

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“…It is undeniable that climate change, intensive anthropogenic activities, and their complex interactions have led to significant changes in water cycles and streamflow variability [8][9][10]. Climate change has a direct impact on precipitation and evaporation, while anthropogenic activities can modify temporal and spatial distribution through land use change, river diversion, dam construction, and other engineering and management practices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution Analysis of Dry Season Runoff in the Lhasa River Using an Extended Hydrological Sensitivity Method and a Hydrological Model

Mei

Chen

et al. 2019

Water

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In this study, a coupled water-energy balance equation at an arbitrary time scale was proposed as an extension of the Budyko hypothesis. The second mixed partial derivative was selected to represent the magnitude of the interaction. The extended hydrological sensitivity method was used to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff in the Lhasa River. In addition, an ABCD model, which is a monthly hydrological model included a snowmelt module, was used to calculate the change in soil water and groundwater storage. The Mann-Kendall test, Spearman's test, dynamic linear model (DLM), and Yamamoto's method were used to identify trends and change points in hydro-climatic variables from 1956-2016. The results found that dry season runoff increased non-significantly over the last 61 years. Climate change, which caused an increase in dry season runoff, was the dominant factor, followed by anthropogenic activities and their interaction, which led to varying degrees of decrease. This study concluded that the methods tested here performed well in quantifying the relative impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff change.

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“…LULCC manifests in atmospheric interactions, hydrological changes, and biodiversity losses [8,[17][18][19]. Approximately 39-50% of terrestrial ecosystems have been affected by anthropogenic activities [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paddy Field Expansion and Aggregation Since the Mid-1950s in a Cold Region and Its Possible Causes

Yan

Yang

et al. 2018

Remote Sensing

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Over the last six decades, paddy fields on the Sanjiang Plain have experienced rapid expansion and aggregation. In our study, land use and land cover changes related to paddy fields were studied based on information acquired from topographic maps and remote-sensing images. Paddy field expansion and aggregation were investigated through landscape indices and trajectory codes. Trajectory analyses showed that the transformations from marsh as well as from grassland to dry farmland and then into paddy fields were predominant. Climate warming provided a favorable environment for rice planting. Meanwhile, population growth, technological progress, and government policies drove paddy field expansion and aggregation during the study period.

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Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa

Cited by 342 publications

References 69 publications

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Attribution Analysis of Dry Season Runoff in the Lhasa River Using an Extended Hydrological Sensitivity Method and a Hydrological Model

Paddy Field Expansion and Aggregation Since the Mid-1950s in a Cold Region and Its Possible Causes

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