Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Global and Regional Food Production and Vulnerability

Fischer, G.; Frohberg, Klaus; Parry, Martin L.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-61086-8_5

Cited by 24 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In the first approach, 'arbitrary (incremental) scenarios (e.g. + 2°C and + 4°C temperature changes, ±10% precipitation changes)' were recommended, whereas in the second approach, 'scenarios derived from GCMs' were suggested for estimating potential future changes in yield (see also similar recommendations by Fischer 1996).…”

Section: Use Of Incremental Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change

Adejuwon¹

2006

Clim. Res.

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Two separate lines of investigation were adapted from the recommendations of the 1994 United States Country Studies Program (USCP). In one approach, arbitrary incremental scenarios were adopted to assess the response of crop yield to changes in the various elements of climate. Using the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) crop model, tests were conducted to demonstrate how crop yield might respond to changes in rainfall, relative humidity (RH), temperature, solar radiation and CO 2 concentration. The value of one element was altered incrementally while holding constant the values of the others. In the second approach, potential future changes in the yields of maize, sorghum, millet, rice and cassava were simulated based on a scenario specifying mean conditions for 1961-9190 as a baseline and general circulation model (GCM) projections from this for 3 periods: 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results predicted a possible increase in crop yield during the first half of the 21st century to be followed by a decrease during the second half. Enhanced crop yield was explained by projected increases in rainfall, solar radiation, atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentrations. Lower yields were explained in terms of continued global warming, as a result of which maximum and minimum temperatures approach the limits of tolerance for the modelled crops. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Crop yield · Nigeria · Food productionResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Section: Use Of Incremental Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, a rise in atmospheric CO 2 may reduce transpiration even while promoting photosynthesis. This dual effect may improve water-use efficiency (Fischer 1996). Therefore, higher concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 should also induce plants to be more economical in the use of water.…”

Section: Effects Of Changing Climate Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change

Adejuwon¹

2006

Clim. Res.

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“…The a nalysis pro vides estimates of changes in term s of production and prices of major food crops and the number of people at risk of hunger. The method used has been reported elsewhere Fischer et al, 1996). In this paper we show that the use of transient global climate model (GCM) scenarios allows not only the effect of the magnitude of climate change on food production to be assessed but also the effects of rate of change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and world food security: a new assessment

Parry

Rosenzweig

Iglesias

et al. 1999

Global Environmental Change

430

246

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Building on previous work quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hulme et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO, 1988) ha ve also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million people ( ± 10 millio n depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble members is selected). H owever, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked reductions in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 millio n extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario the effect is even more severe, producing an estimated additional 70 + million people at risk of hunger in Africa. 1;)

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“…Rising sea levels and extreme rainfall events cause food security problems in coastal areas (Parry et al 1999;Porter and Semenov 2005;Slingo et al 2005). Desert ecosystems have been experiencing extreme droughts and decreasing crop yields due to rising temperature during the last several decades (Rosenzweig and Parry 1994;Fischer et al 1996;Mearns, Rosenzweig, and Goldberg 1997 . Intensive rainfall triggers several hydrological hazards, including flash floods, river-line floods, soil erosion, and non-seismic landslides in monsoon periods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Agriculture constitutes the backbone of most developing economies throughout the world and food and fiber production is essential for sustaining and enhancing human welfare (Rosenzweig and Parry 1994;Fischer et al 1996Fischer et al , 2005Tao et al 2006;Lobell and Burke 2010). By 2080, agricultural output in developing countries may decline by 20 percent due to climate change, while output in industrial countries is expected to decrease by 6 percent (Cline 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and hydrological hazards on monsoon crop patterns in the Lesser Himalaya: A watershed based study

Rawat

2012

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The Lesser Himalaya region is a densely populate d, nonglacial tract of the Himalaya. About 95 percent of the regional population depends on agriculture and forest resources but both have been declining rapidly in recent decades due to climate change and hydrological hazards. The main objective of this study was to assess the integrated impacts of climate change and hydrological hazards on monsoon crop patterns in the Lesser Himalaya through a geographic information system (GIS) database management system (DMS). The DMS comprises four GIS modules: climate informatics, land use informatics, hydro-informatics, and agro-informatics. The Dabka watershed in India's Uttarakhand State is part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya in District Nainital and was chosen as a case study. The climate of the study area, depending on elevation, falls into three climatic zones: subtropical, temperate, and moist temperate, which are favorable for mixed forest, pine forest, and oak forest respectively. The results of the climate-informatics analysis suggest that in recent decades all these climatic zones have shifted towards higher altitudes and the areas of oak and pine forests have decreased. Forest degradation has accelerated hydrological hazards (high runoff, flash floods, river-line floods, soil erosion, and landslides) in monsoon periods, which affected about 22 percent of the cultivated land annually in 2005-2010. Monsoon crop yields decreased by an annual average of 1.40 percent between 1985 and 2010 while the population of the study area increased by an average of 2 percent each year in the same period. The negative correlation between annual crop yields and population growth has led to increased food security risks.

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Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Global and Regional Food Production and Vulnerability

Cited by 24 publications

References 13 publications

Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change

Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and world food security: a new assessment

Impacts of climate change and hydrological hazards on monsoon crop patterns in the Lesser Himalaya: A watershed based study

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