The purpose of this study is to determine the prediction of gross enrollment at the primary school level in Musi Rawas Regency, South Sumatra Province. Furthermore, to identify the programs and policies of the Musi Rawas district government to increase the gross enrollment rate at the primary school level based on the results of the APM prediction. The method used is descriptive quantitative, with secondary data analysis and supplemented by interview results. Data analysis uses the Parabolic Quadratic model trend with the equation Y = a + bX +cX2. The results show that the trend of primary school APK in 2023-2032 tends to decrease by 37.25%. Then for the programs implemented by the Musi Rawas district government to increase the APK at the primary school level, such as compulsory education, PIP, edu tech, school and teacher activist programs, and education socialization, while for the policies, they include institutional operations, quality improvement and improving educators. The Musi Rawas district government, especially the Education and Culture Office, followed up on the results of the trend analysis by increasing the APK at the school education level.
Keywords: Trends, Enrollment Rate, Primary School Education, Policy Plan